Tuesday, September 20, 2011

5.5 pt Gap Up = early down into 710 Reversal. 90 grind Time Intervals right on clue.


Yesterday's Power On Close = Weakness
Today's Open = Open @ 1202.50 GAP Up (15.25pts)
Result = DN momentum early then 7:10 Reversal
Today's TREND = DN momentum early then 7:10 Reversal.
Today's 15 Minute Close Bar =UP @ 1197.00
Today's Power On Close = Strength
Daily Volume = 2.59M Volume
Today's $TICK close = -866
R1 1204.(Globex) R2 1205-1207 R3 1212 R4 1214.75
S1 1199.(Globex) S21194.5-1192 S3 1188.75.75 S4 1185.5

Daily Market Bias For Tomorrow  
0 Stronge Range

Daily's are showing some signs of Weaksness. The ES closed Down slightly after a very Bearish Close. Price formed a long leg doji type bar with heavy rejection at the highs which was the mid trend channel. Additionally we are currently cycling to the downside with the 40,500 tick already breaking below support. We can expect some resistance at the 1200 area that may last for the week. Test or breaks of this level will be crucial and there is still strength in the Daily Background. A day or 2 of consolidation would be No surprise either.

The ES.D Volume Profile has printed a very wide range p-pattern profile with Value peaking from 1211-1213, This could signal buyer short covering and no new buying, particularly at the higher prices. The ES Profile however had an elongated  profile with Value peaking at 1188. Possible suggesting an inside day or consolidation on the horizon.


TRADE OF THE DAY:
Today was a 13,500 Open Ice that printed on EOT on the 13 in globex and carried the momentum into the Ope, price never challenged the midline falling thru the ice @ 1201 finding a bottom @ 1194.50.
The Real TOD was a BB Reversal at the 7:10 Time Interval. This synced with1500 cycle and an overshoot on the 500 with probars at the lows. A conservative entry was at 1199.25 BB bar break. An entry off the 500 would have been @ 1198.75 Both proving to be very nice moves as the rally ran into the True 7zone prior to stalling. This was the Perfect example of the Ideal Time Interval Sequence. Open Ice Breaker rides to 6:45 where we get a reversal warning. Then 710 is the actual reversal play. 710 entry Peaks at the 7zone with Exhaustion and probars. 9/20/11. The rally was anywhere from 11 to 14 points in 45 minutes.


WHAT I DONE BETTER:
TRADE SELECTION - Good trade selection, Qualified Open Ice Breaker.
ENTRY'S -Good Entry
EXITS - Ok Exit could have held for max
NERVES - Pretty good, Felt Calm and in control.


WHAT I CAN DO BETTER:
Manage the trades better, let the market take me out and dont be afraid to get a large move. Use the 90 Grind Time Intervals to your advantage.


SOLUTIONS:
On the early entries allow them to play out, the chances are good that your target will be hit if you have clearly defined low risk entries.
Trust my trades and have confidence in my ability.
Keep with the visualizations and focus. 

INTANGIBLE OBSERVATIONS:
When You feel as though a negative thought or very emotional or confusing event is sticking in your mind it is probably best to stay out of the next trade. ie. Yesterdays No fill prompted me to take early profit on a trade that i felt really good about. Because I didnt max target and the thought lingered i stayed out of the next trade which became the TOD.