Wednesday, September 28, 2011

2pt Gap Up range open until 710 Time Interval falling thru the ice selling Climax

Yesterday's Power On Close = Weakness
Today's Open = Open @ 1172.00 GAP Dn (2 pts)
Result = Tight Tange Drifter up then 12:00 selling climax
Today's TREND = Up trend Tight range drift until sell off
Today's 15 Minute Close Bar =UP @ 1149.00
Today's Power On Close = Weakness
Daily Volume = 2.78M Volume
Today's $TICK close = -858
R1 1154-1155.(Globex) R2 1158 R3 1164 R4 1126
S1 1143.(Globex) S2 1140. S3 1136 S4 1142 

Daily Market Bias For Tomorrow  
-0.5 Modest Bear

Daily's are showing some signs of Weakness. The ES closed Down today after a break below the 1162.50 level with selling into the close. I think we may be headed further south if we test the 1162 area in Globex session. We do have cycle supprt printed on the ES and ES.D with ST* in both directions.


The ES Volume Profile has printed a p pattern after testing the ES.D's p- pattern early and reversing for day. The Vpoc of 1165 and 1166 are the key resistance points.

TRADE OF THE DAY:
The TOD was a Falling Through the Ice at 710 Time Interval. Price tested the Support at 1173-1174 level on increasing volume. the 4500 shows the 3 probars pushing through supply. Price eventually slowed down around 1165.00.

HOW I DID TODAY:
TRADE SELECTION - Ok, the tripple crown may be disqualified until further notice. Im unable to distinguish it from falling thru the ice at the moment.
ENTRY'S - Poor. This is one of my Weak points. i tend to enter at max heat, constantly being threatened when price moves away from my entry.
EXITS - Must do better, I held for Max Loss 2x's on a qualified Trade. But got a max + target hit. I feel great about the last trade I stayed with it and Read VSA to the Exit. Held for 50 minutes
NERVES - Very Very Good, not an issue, felt Demo like. 
Market Focus & Action: Very Good. I was focused on VSA but made fatal errors in allowing a 4+pt gain become a 4pt loss. total over confidence, and thinking because it happend yesterday it would happen today. REMEMBER we never know what the day will bring so take profits when they are presented.


WHAT I CAN DO BETTER:
WORK ON THE ENTRY's!- If i can get better Entry's I can avoid taking too much heat, although this is not a perfect art I feel I be a bit more tactful on when to enter. ie think lowest risk entry once the big picture is understood. I would rather enter a lower risk


SOLUTIONS:
Focus on Lowest Risk portion of the ANALYSIS - The reason for entry should have at least 4pts as an intangible target, so gauge the lowest risk and try to enter there. If it conflicts with confirmation then be cautious.


INTANGIBLE OBSERVATIONS:

Discontinue Triple Crown Setups, At least until im able to distinguish this from falling thru the ice.