Yesterday's Power On Close = Strength
Today's Open = Open @ 1114.75 GAP Dn (10pts)
Result = Open Bounce & early reversal into down trend
Result = Open Bounce & early reversal into down trend
Today's TREND = Open Bounce & early reversal into down trend.
Today's 15 Minute Close Bar =UP @ 1130.75
Today's Power On Close = Weakness
Today's Power On Close = Weakness
Daily Volume = 3.34M Volume
Today's $TICK close = 195
R1 1138.25.(Globex) R2 1141 R3 1148 R4 1157
S1 1123.(Globex) S2 1118. S3 1106.75 S4 1100
Daily Market Bias For Tomorrow =
-357 Moderate Range
Daily's are showing some signs of Strength. The ES closed Up on Block Volume after trading in a wide rang all day, after finding the low price closed up 6pts but failed to crack the 1140 level. Going foreword we may be in for a Break out, possibly to the down side as the Volume Profile indicates Long Liquidation in a very Fat P-Pattern. A break below today low could spell 1100 or even 1060. Conversely a break above todays high may see testing of 1150, 1170 and 1200.
The ES.D & Volume Profile has printed a very fat tight range symetrical Profile which could indicate the potential for another break out day. The ES.D VPOC was 1126.50. The @ES formed a P-Pattern with a VPOC of 1131.50. Down side break out could be next weeks theme.
TRADE OF THE DAY:
The TOD was a Triple Crown w/Jewels that had divergence on the approach with 1500 and 500 in sync (Triple Crown). The 1500 had divergence at the peak and the 500 had Exhaustion on the peak. This a Discretionary AAA trade that pops the eyes out. A good entry was at 1131-1132. Price moved lower to 1124 before probars and rambos showed up, an exit here was good for 7-8 points.
HOW I DID TODAY:
TRADE SELECTION - Not bad but could be better. forced some trades with revenge pressure after the early ice breaker that went horribly wrong. But regrouped and did well to end on a high note.
ENTRY'S - good overall, but I Screwed up the ice breaker and exited too early on too many good trades.
EXITS - Must do better, I held for Max Loss on an Unqualified Trade. But got 2 max target hit, but should have had 4.
NERVES - Very Good, not a real issue.
Market Focus & Action: I froze when the ice breaker moved against me my first reaction was to reverse but i couldnt, so i tried to drag my stop down at which point it was accedentally canceled as the market blasted thru, so I tried to stay calm and manage it back but was unsuccessful, the market moved 12 points away in 15 minutes. I had 2 lots on by mistake and this became the worst trading disaster all year. The rest of the Trades i made were not too bad. I did have some pressure to recoup but if not for the mistake My day would have been good.
WHAT I CAN DO BETTER:
WORK ON THE EXITS!- my exits were no better than the prior week, I need to readjust my mentality to treat this more like a demo. Care free but Careful.
Manage the trades better be more alert, Had a poor reaction to a bad Mistake, must be very careful about the order manipulation.
SOLUTIONS:
TRUST MY ANALYSIS - The reason for entry should have at least 4pts as an intangible target.
Dont get caught REACTING to the PRICE on the tape. The Focus should be on the volume on the tape particularly when approaching the target to read the likely hood of an extended breakout or stalling
ENTRY'S - good overall, but I Screwed up the ice breaker and exited too early on too many good trades.
EXITS - Must do better, I held for Max Loss on an Unqualified Trade. But got 2 max target hit, but should have had 4.
NERVES - Very Good, not a real issue.
Market Focus & Action: I froze when the ice breaker moved against me my first reaction was to reverse but i couldnt, so i tried to drag my stop down at which point it was accedentally canceled as the market blasted thru, so I tried to stay calm and manage it back but was unsuccessful, the market moved 12 points away in 15 minutes. I had 2 lots on by mistake and this became the worst trading disaster all year. The rest of the Trades i made were not too bad. I did have some pressure to recoup but if not for the mistake My day would have been good.
WHAT I CAN DO BETTER:
WORK ON THE EXITS!- my exits were no better than the prior week, I need to readjust my mentality to treat this more like a demo. Care free but Careful.
Manage the trades better be more alert, Had a poor reaction to a bad Mistake, must be very careful about the order manipulation.
SOLUTIONS:
TRUST MY ANALYSIS - The reason for entry should have at least 4pts as an intangible target.
Dont get caught REACTING to the PRICE on the tape. The Focus should be on the volume on the tape particularly when approaching the target to read the likely hood of an extended breakout or stalling
INTANGIBLE OBSERVATIONS:
When I Take PB and Eot's on the 4500 and 1500 tick. Dont wait for BB mid violation. especially after rallies and sell offs.
Also take the 4500 Solo Probars at support/Resistance especially if we get Exhaustion and/or Divergence either on the bar or Prior to the peak/Spike. This setup is best when trading in ranges, but will show up in strong trends at pullback lows.
How to Handle Mistakes and Events that are not skill related such as computer gliches or hand errors. Mistakes can and will happen, but how I react to them is the key. This aspect is a little talked about part of trading, the reaction to adverse events. Every trader has gone thru a major draw down that had more to do with how they reacted to an unrelated event than the event itself. CLOSE ALL IMMEDIATLEY IS THE RULE!! you can always recover small loses but Major Drawdowns can effect confidence as well a capitol.