Friday, September 9, 2011

15 pt Gap Dn = 7 Bar reversal into down trend

Yesterday's Power On Close = Strength
Today's Open = Open @ 1184.00 GAP Dn (15.pts)
Result = 7 bar reversal into Down Trend
Today's TREND = 7 bar reversal into Down trend
Today's 15 Minute Close Bar =UP @ 1152.50
Today's Power On Close = Strength
Daily Volume = 3.1M  Volume
Today's $TICK close = -388
R1 1141-42(Globex) R2 1147 R3 1152.25-54 (weekly Close)R4 1161 
S1 1141(Globex) S2 1132-35 (weekly Low)S3 1124, S4 1111.00

Daily Market Bias For Tomorrow =  
-0.714 Moderate Bear

Daily's are showing some signs of Weakness. Today ES Broke Below 1176 Yesterdays low and Trended Down for the Day. It appears that we may be resuming the down trend from the US credit Downgrade Low. A Daily test of suppy could be on the horizon over the next week. a break below 1130 would confirm this hypothesis. However a bounce could be brewing. Looking at the Daily Channel We are at the lower Trend line and we closed off the lows of Friday. The 135 is showing Probars and Divergence at the low end of the its down cycle. Also we have Exhaustion and Strength in the background and we closed the week on a No supply type bar. Very Interesting

TRADE OF THE DAY:
Today was a Break Below 1160  Support level just after the 7 bar. the 4500 Formed at PB in trend with Exhaustion just preceding and Divergence on the peak, also the 1500 formed the same double top with a flush signal and Divergence on the 2nd peak, This move happend very fast a good entry was a break below 1166 a break below the probar on the 2nd peak, an entry hear saw a quick drop to 1154 for the 1st exit signal then 1147 for the 2nd Flush probar exit signal and finally a 3rd Exhaustion and probar exit signal at 1143 ove the course of 2 hours.


WHAT I DONE BETTER:
TRADE SELECTION - Could be better 


ENTRY'S - ok but can be better


EXITS - missed 2 max targets today, one early ice breaker and a B trade that became a AA trade and ran 5 points


NERVES - not too good today, it seems the longer i hold a trade the bettter my nerves get.


WHAT I CAN DO BETTER:
I must trust my trade and allow it play out to max.
I must keep working with my visualizations for better nerve response and broader view while in the trades.


SOLUTIONS:
Trust my trades and have confidence in my ability.


Keep with the visualizations and focus. Use the Rank Trades to help with selection. 


Stay Detached and focus on the broad view
My focus on Market data was very good also.

INTANGIBLE OBSERVATIONS:
Pay attention to the POC clusters, the closer the cluster are together this will be tough S/R areas to crack, look to trade setups against these number ( ie. If the POC Resistance is 1155,1157,1158 and the next Support is 1120, 1115, Then you know there is more air below and we must look for setups to the down side)
Today was a perfect example of this. (Notice the Close Cluster at the Top. When price opens it test this area for a long period of time before failing and breaking down. The longer price test the more likely it is to break, BUT when the clusters are thick once price starts to break down look out below.)


Trades MUST be JUSTIFIABLE on the 4500 Tick.
Has Strength or Weakness Shown Up? on High Volume or Low Volume?


Use Trade Review Cards to RANK each trade prior to Entry. Jot down what you did right and what you did wrong after each trade. This will help to train my Brain to recognized past mistakes and opportunities, as well as make my Daily scorecard review easier to complete.


When the Cycles Cross don't just enter at that point, wait for the Cycle S/R to print to get a clearer view of the potential, this is why i take soo much heat, I tend to enter upon or just prior to the Cycle waves cross.


Also Use Limit Orders to enter at your price, DO NOT USE MARKET ORDERS!!! Unless it is urgent.. Market Order will cost you in the long run, the slippage and friction can cost a whole point in some cases!! (See Linda Raschke on OCO order entry techniques)