Tuesday, September 6, 2011

30+ Gap Dn Globex Bounce = Open Ice 1S1K. Then 2 reversals early??


Yesterday's Power On Close = Strength
Today's Open = Open @ 1138.50 GAP Dn (31.5pts)
Result = Reversal 2x's early then up trend
Today's TREND = Reversal 2x's early then up trend
Today's 15 Minute Close Bar =UP @ 1164.50
Today's Power On Close = Strength
Daily Volume = 3.5M High Volume
Today's $TICK close = -275
R1 1143(Globex)R2 ,1173 R3 1181, R4 1185
S1 1163(Globex) S2 1160, S3 1152, S4 1140

Daily Market Bias For Tomorrow =  
0.5 Modest Bull

Daily's are showing some signs of Strength with a bull run today After Gaping sown more than 30 point over the Holiday weekend, we have already broken the days highs in the after market with a Cycle support and probar on the 135 minute chart. If we Open at these levels a test of 1173 then 1181 could be in the cards early.


TRADE OF THE DAY:
Today was a Open Ice Break that went 5pts.1S1K

WHAT I COULD HAVE DONE BETTER:
TRADE SELECTION - Poor Open. Missed Ice Breaker and had to play from behind.
ENTRY'S - Buck the Trend 2x's for big loses, Was Impulsive at times in very poor locations, Did Not wait for Confirmation on Cycle turns!!. Trades move immediately away.
EXITS - holding for max needs work, more patients. Need to ask myself what im expecting out of this move and allow the market to play out.


SOLUTIONS:
Take more time on pre-open analysis, 


Take My Open Ice Breakers!!!
Getting down big early is my Fault and . Im forced to play from behind most of the time and it ends bad most of the time. 
Remember that we only want 2 trades before the 7 bar and maybe 1 or 2 for the 8-9 bars. The Open Ice is the key to this sequence so try to avoid entry's that are NOT open ice breakers early, If there is No Ice breaker then Wait for the market to show its intentions before entering.


Take it Light, dont think so much about trading. Go through your routine, focus early but put so much on it, its not make or break either way just settle into a groove.


WHAT I DID BETTER:
My nerves were much better, but i still missed the larger scope of information available. And made some poor decisions. 

INTANGIBLE OBSERVATIONS:
Only take the BB break in the direction of the first break and in sequence with Cycle and probars.
watch for Price when it does NOT close Across the BB mid, this is a continuation move. Dont jump the gun WAIT for bar break.
Only Enter on bar breaks after the closed bar across or close bar of failed break.
If there is NO 13,500 Open Ice Setup the next trade should be after the Open, 


FINDING THE TREND EARLY 
- look for trades in the BB Channel Trend Direction early on the Pre-Open and Open; Often we get test of the midline early prior to moving deeping into the trend. ( see arrow )


Another Example of BB Channel pointing the way on the open
 Testing the BB Midline before Continuing deeper into the trend, Probar Down Close

If Price Opens against Support or Resistance outside the BB Extremes, look to Fade these areas early, these confirm Globex momentum and insures that you are trading with the trend.
(Notice the Cycle Resistance above BB Mid with Probar)
Price Opens Near Cycle Support at BB EXTREME
 Price Opens Near Cycle Resistance at BB EXTREME


If Price crosses the Midline multiple times early Be Wait before entering a trade as the trend has not been established.
(Notice the Choppy Open with Midline Violation on both side before the trend emerged, best to wait on these opens)

Another Choppy Open
Remember that Bar Breaks MUST confirm Trend Direction or look for the BB Midline to crossed, Closed and tested with Bar break in cross direction prior to entering, These Open are treated like Reversals
 Another Test of BB Midline, Failure confirmed with Bar Break.