Monday, September 12, 2011

19 pt Gap Down, 13,500 Globex EOT Bounce = Eary UpTrend pre 7 bar reversal

Yesterday's Power On Close = Strength
Today's Open = Open @ 1133.25 GAP Dn (19.25pts)
Result = Early Up trend after Globex Bounce
Today's TREND = Pre 7 bar reversal into Down trend for day
Today's 15 Minute Close Bar =UP @ 1157.50
Today's Power On Close = Strength
Daily Volume = 3.6M High Volume
Today's $TICK close = 111
R1 1163(Globex) R2 1164-65 R3 1170-71 R4 1180-82 
S1 1156(Globex)1152.25-54 (weekly Close) S2 1147-48 S3 1141, S4 1137.00

Daily Market Bias For Tomorrow =  
.571 Modest Bull

Daily's are showing some signs of Strength. Today ES Bounced off of Trend Line support on high volume and is now close to printing a cycle support in a few days. The 135 has already printed a cycle support and wide spread Up bar on high volume. The 1170 area will key if ES is to rally back to 1200. However I would like to see a test of supply at the 1147-1141 area on low volume before any sustained rally.

The Volume Profile has printed a b-pattern on the ES.D signaling short covering rally on the day. An early test of the Value Area before reversing would not be suprising.

TRADE OF THE DAY:
Today We saw Very large gap down overnight with strength appearing as the 13,500 printed an EOT with Divergence. The 4500 was in the upper channel and printed probars at the midline just prior to the open leading to very fast 1S1K. An entry @ 1335.50 reached 1149.25 on the 2nd 15 minute bar.

13,500 Open Ice


WHAT I DONE BETTER:
TRADE SELECTION - AA 13,300 Ice Braker
ENTRY'S - Great Limit order
EXITS - Max target
NERVES - Much Better.


WHAT I CAN DO BETTER:
Recognized that the position had even more room to run and allow the 2nd position to max especially after 1st limit. No regrets.


SOLUTIONS:
Remember that Each trade is simply a random distribution of wins and loses and is therefore insignificant without a whole sample size.


Trust my trades and have confidence in my ability.


Keep with the visualizations and focus. Use the Rank Trades to help with selection. 


Stay Detached and focus on the broad view
My focus on Market data was very good also.

INTANGIBLE OBSERVATIONS:
Look closer at Midline Breaks during the GLOBEX Session and pre-open. It appears that whenever price crosses the midline up then down prior to the open we get an early reversal after the first probar on the 4500 .


Pay attention to the POC clusters, the closer the cluster are together this will be tough S/R areas to crack, look to trade setups against these number ( ie. If the POC Resistance is 1155,1157,1158 and the next Support is 1120, 1115, Then you know there is more air below and we must look for setups to the down side)