Yesterday's Power On Close = Weakness
Today's Open = Open @ 1181.75 GAP UP (10.25pts)
Result = Early Sell Off and Down Trend
Today's TREND = Early Sell off / Dn Trend & 7 bar Reversal
Today's 15 Minute Close Bar =UP @ 1157.25
Today's Power On Close = Strength
Daily Volume = 3.19M Volume
Today's $TICK close = -433
Daily Market Bias For Tomorrow =
0.929 Moderate strong Bull
Daily's are showing some Signs of Strength as price closed at the bottom of the rang but found Value at a high level. The Daily's look misleading as price consolidated at the lows after the 7 bar indicating some strength with Block volume closing down at the lower Gap area. The ES.D is approaching a cycle resistance that should play out next week, in the mean time i think the bias is long to retest the 1193 broken support.
The Volume Profile formed an asymmetrical day on the ES.D But closed as a b-pattern on the @ES.D. Signaling possible long liquidation with bullish implications. Price closed below the Value Area of 1160.50 which will have to be tested or broken for further clarification. If Broken with conviction then the next stop is 1169-1170 area, beyond this point we retest the actual highs from last night Globex session @ 1188. Conversely the ES contract from yesterday formed a b-pattern but has a vPOC of 1149 that has never been tested, a break below 1153 could lead us to this level for more testing of supply.
TRADE OF THE DAY:
The TOD was a PB in the down trend @ 1175-1176 that synced the 1500 and 500 ticks with probars at the high. This move happend after a large sell off of the high of 1188 area that printed an EOT with exhaustion and probars on the 1500 tick. If entering at the very high the move was good for 32 pts to the lows. I entering at the PB of 1175-1176 a gutsy hold bottomed out at 1157-1158 for a 23pt move.
WHAT I COULD HAVE DONE BETTER:
I should have taken profits on an ice breaker that came 1 tick form my target to return and stop me out!!! There was Probars and Exhaustion on the peak, but i was hoping for 1 tick!!! This happens from time to time especially on high volatility days, The best way the play them is to try to prevent ht loss by moving stops up (hate to say that because this has and will cost you overall in the long run) BUT giving back profits for max loses hurts the current trade and haunts the future trades.
My EXITS were Very Poor again, I placed 4 trades to get a simple 2.5pts in same direction!!!! the volatility is causing me to bail at the exact wrong times. I'm entering well but ounce the trade goes in my favor and fluctuates I Bail! wasting a good entry and a trade for the day. Conversely I have held for Max loses a number of times over the past few days and failed to take advantage of the Opportunities...VERY VERY BAD. My nerves are getting the best of me at the moment! Maybe i need to focus on the larger 4500 and 1500 frames to gauge EXITS after entering, I have been zeroed in on the 500 and Matrix for Supply/ Demand Readings. BUT the 1500 is more truthful of were we are in the trade. Only move to the matrix ounce we get near target.
SOLUTIONS
Maybe i need to focus on the larger 4500 and 1500 frames to gauge EXITS after entering, I have been zeroed in on the 500 and Matrix for Supply/ Demand Readings. BUT the 1500 is more truthful of were we are in the trade. Only move to the matrix ounce we get near target.
NEVER TRADE AGAINST THE TREND!!!!! WAIT for the clues of a reversal appear before considering the opposite direction.
My EXITS were Very Poor again, I placed 4 trades to get a simple 2.5pts in same direction!!!! the volatility is causing me to bail at the exact wrong times. I'm entering well but ounce the trade goes in my favor and fluctuates I Bail! wasting a good entry and a trade for the day. Conversely I have held for Max loses a number of times over the past few days and failed to take advantage of the Opportunities...VERY VERY BAD. My nerves are getting the best of me at the moment! Maybe i need to focus on the larger 4500 and 1500 frames to gauge EXITS after entering, I have been zeroed in on the 500 and Matrix for Supply/ Demand Readings. BUT the 1500 is more truthful of were we are in the trade. Only move to the matrix ounce we get near target.
SOLUTIONS
Maybe i need to focus on the larger 4500 and 1500 frames to gauge EXITS after entering, I have been zeroed in on the 500 and Matrix for Supply/ Demand Readings. BUT the 1500 is more truthful of were we are in the trade. Only move to the matrix ounce we get near target.
NEVER TRADE AGAINST THE TREND!!!!! WAIT for the clues of a reversal appear before considering the opposite direction.
INTANGIBLE OBSERVATIONS:
ALSO BE VERY MINDFUL OF THE OPENING BARS on the 15 minute and 5 minute as prices tend to test early before moving in the intended direction for that bar.
The ATR for the 15 minute chart was 7.16 this morning, This can be very useful when entering and EXITING. One way to use this is to take your setup but be aware of the time within the bar that you enter (ie. early opening mid, late) If you have the direction correct this bar is likely to range 7.16 hi/lo. BUT be aware that this changes over the day and you cant be sure it will play out in your direction or even consolidate. No system is perfect but timing Your entry's & exits can be enhanced by using time of entry and Bar Range.
The ATR for the 15 minute chart was 7.16 this morning, This can be very useful when entering and EXITING. One way to use this is to take your setup but be aware of the time within the bar that you enter (ie. early opening mid, late) If you have the direction correct this bar is likely to range 7.16 hi/lo. BUT be aware that this changes over the day and you cant be sure it will play out in your direction or even consolidate. No system is perfect but timing Your entry's & exits can be enhanced by using time of entry and Bar Range.