Friday, August 12, 2011

10pt Gap and a bit less volatility = Tight Horizontal Range

Yesterday's Power On Close = Strength
Today's Open = Open @ 1167.75 GAP Dn(10.pts)
Result =  Horizontal Range
Today's TREND = Wide Range
Today's 15 Minute Close Bar =UP @ 1177.00
Today's Power On Close = Strength
Daily Volume = 62.7M ULTRA High Volume
Today's $TICK close = 204

Daily Market Bias For Tomorrow =  
1 STRONG / MODERATE BULL

Daily's are showing Signs of short term strength closing above the previous days high. We have a 15 minute Pull back in trend. The 40500 is beginning the next leg of a cycle support. Conversely we are at Previous Cycle support that has now become resistance on the @ES. Today's Close was a tight range DOJI/ Evening star bar on less volume than the last 2 days. 
Also the Volume Profile is overlapping to the long side on a tight range wide profile signaling a potential breakout with a bottom type base in the background. A Break above 1187 will be a long trigger and pullbacks into trend may be the best plays. Hower i'll be looking for testing of the 1168 level and below, any quick bounces, Probars at the lows or Rambos around these price may also confirm a long bias for the day.





TRADE OF THE DAY:
The TOD was an Open Ice Break that was a 1 shot 1 kill to the tick, although risky at a 10 pt gap (Range signal).
The Best TOD was a short at the 1884-1886 area that synced up on the 4500 and 1500 ticks with Probars and Exhuastion on the 1500. The were NO Cycle Syncs on the highs of the 45 and the 5 but pro bars showed on the peaks, This came moved to low 1680.




WHAT I COULD HAVE DONE BETTER:
TAKE PROFIT. I Opened with 2 1 shot 1 kill opportunities BUT move my target out too soon. The Trades came back and stopped out for max. This Upset me and I lost focus due to regret of the those trades and the day went Down Hill from there, i had to bench myself after 6 trades which is far too many and could have been avoided just by Not touching anything after entry. This was a Perfect Example of getting in my own way!!!!
Entry's started out ok, but after this they got worse.
Consider  closing trades that are NOT going as expected sooner. Use key points to move stop to such as cycle breaks, POC breaks.

INTANGIBLE OBSERVATIONS:
REMEMBER to move target out only after they get close, then evaluate the likely hood of them continuing thru. In the current High Volitility environment I should see an aggressive approach possibly making several attempts.