2pt Gap Dn After Up Trend= Strong Rally Early & Early Reversal
Yesterday's Power On Close = Weakness
Today's Open = Open @ 1181.75 GAP UP (10.25pts)
Result = Early Sell Off and Down Trend
Today's TREND = Early Sell off / Dn Trend & 7 bar Reversal
Today's 15 Minute Close Bar =UP @ 1171.50
Today's Power On Close = Weakness
Daily Volume = 2.6M Volume
Today's $TICK close = 454
Daily Market Bias For Tomorrow =
0.5 Modest Bull
Daily's are showing some Signs of Strength at least in the short term, I'm still Not fully convinced that we have put in a bottom, BUT for now we must go with the flow and flow appears to have @ES headed to 1200 possibly 1245. I'm Expecting some testing of the 1160 level either Overnight or on the open. If we get rejection early we may be in for another strong Up trend day. However we did rally on light volume which can be the start of a bull run as prices are marked Up quickly, but can also be viewed as Block volume exiting longs.
The Volume Profile formed an asymetrical day on the ES.D But closed as a b-pattern on the @ES continuous. Signaling possible long liquidation with bullish implications. Testing the 1177 VPOC from last weeks inside day and finding value around the 1160-1167 area, we may see a test hear early prior to any rally.
TRADE OF THE DAY:
The TOD was a PB in the down trend @ 1175-1176 that synced the 1500 and 500 ticks with probars at the high. This move happend after a large sell off of the high of 1188 area that printed an EOT with exhuastion and probars on the 1500 tick. If entering at the very high the move was good for 32 pts to the lows. I entering at the PB of 1175-1176 a gutsy hold bottomed out at 1157-1158 for a 23pt move.
WHAT I COULD HAVE DONE BETTER:
I should have taken profits on an ice breaker that came 1 tick form my target to return and stop me out!!! There was Probars and Exhaustion on the peak, but i was hoping for 1 tick!!! This happens from time to time especially on high volatility days, The best way the play them is to try to prevent ht loss by moving stops up (hate to say that because this has and will cost you overall in the long run) BUT giving back profits for max loses hurts the current trade and haunts the future trades.
My EXITS were Very Poor again, I placed 4 trades to get a simple 2.5pts in same direction!!!! the volatility is causing me to bail at the exact wrong times. Im entering well but ounce the trade goes in my favor and fluctuates I Bail! wasting a good entry and a trade for the day. Conversely I have held for Max loses a number of times over the past few days and failed to take advantage of the Opportunities...VERY VERY BAD. My nerves are getting the best of me at the moment! Maybe i need to focus on the larger 4500 and 1500 frames to gauge EXITS after entering, I have been zeroed in on the 500 and Matrix for Supply/ Demand Readings. BUT the 1500 is more truthful of were we are in the trade. Only move to the matrix ounce we get near target.
SOLUTIONS
Maybe i need to focus on the larger 4500 and 1500 frames to gauge EXITS after entering, I have been zeroed in on the 500 and Matrix for Supply/ Demand Readings. BUT the the 1500 is more truthful of were we are in the trade. Only move to the matrix ounce we get near target.
NEVER TRADE AGAINST THE TREND!!!!! WAIT for the clues of a reversal appear before considering the opposite direction.
My EXITS were Very Poor again, I placed 4 trades to get a simple 2.5pts in same direction!!!! the volatility is causing me to bail at the exact wrong times. Im entering well but ounce the trade goes in my favor and fluctuates I Bail! wasting a good entry and a trade for the day. Conversely I have held for Max loses a number of times over the past few days and failed to take advantage of the Opportunities...VERY VERY BAD. My nerves are getting the best of me at the moment! Maybe i need to focus on the larger 4500 and 1500 frames to gauge EXITS after entering, I have been zeroed in on the 500 and Matrix for Supply/ Demand Readings. BUT the 1500 is more truthful of were we are in the trade. Only move to the matrix ounce we get near target.
SOLUTIONS
Maybe i need to focus on the larger 4500 and 1500 frames to gauge EXITS after entering, I have been zeroed in on the 500 and Matrix for Supply/ Demand Readings. BUT the the 1500 is more truthful of were we are in the trade. Only move to the matrix ounce we get near target.
NEVER TRADE AGAINST THE TREND!!!!! WAIT for the clues of a reversal appear before considering the opposite direction.
INTANGIBLE OBSERVATIONS:
ALSO BE VERY MINDFUL OF THE OPENING BARS on the 15 minute and 5 minute as prices tend to test early before moving in the intended direction for that bar.
The ATR for the 15 minute chart was 7.16 this morning, This can be very useful when entering and EXITING. One way to use this is to take your setup but be aware of the time within the bar that you enter (ie. early opening mid, late) If you have the direction correct this bar is likely to range 7.16 hi/lo. BUT be aware that this changes over the day and you cant be sure it will play out in your direction or even consolidate. No system is perfect but timing Your entry's & exits can be enhanced by using time of entry and Bar Range.
The ATR for the 15 minute chart was 7.16 this morning, This can be very useful when entering and EXITING. One way to use this is to take your setup but be aware of the time within the bar that you enter (ie. early opening mid, late) If you have the direction correct this bar is likely to range 7.16 hi/lo. BUT be aware that this changes over the day and you cant be sure it will play out in your direction or even consolidate. No system is perfect but timing Your entry's & exits can be enhanced by using time of entry and Bar Range.