Wednesday, August 17, 2011

4.75 Gap = Early Up Trend as Price Breaks recent highs into new territory, Then Reversal @ 7 Bar to close Down a point.

Yesterday's Power On Close = Strength
Today's Open = Open @ 1196.75 GAP Dn(4.75 pts)
Result = Early Up Trend/ 7bar Reversal into DN Trend
Today's TREND = Early Up 7 Bar Reversal to Dn Trend on day
Today's 15 Minute Close Bar =UP @ 1189.50
Today's Power On Close = Weakness
Daily Volume = 2.1M  Ave Low Volume
Today's $TICK close = 411

Daily Market Bias For Tomorrow =  
- .214 RANGE 

Daily's are showing some signs of Weakness as we closed down after breaking the high with little to no conviction. The @ES.D is now printing multiple doji / spinning tops patterns around the broken support now Resistance Line of 1193. The day closed on less volume which could be a test in a falling market signal. Price appears to be rolling over on all time frames. The 135 had printed an EOT, and the 40500 failed at cycle resistance. However we could still break to the upside as the 40500 and 135 are forming Cycle supports. The volume profile printed a b-pattern which can indicate potential for higher prices, but found lower VALUE on the day. If the lows are broken in the Globex session then test of the 1190 POC  and  1182 daily low could be significant Resistance points. Also a break below the 1176-1177 level could lead to a free fal back to test the 1113 lows from the US Down Grade Day.
TRADE OF THE DAY:
The TOD was an Open Ice Breaker that cracked 1197.50 after moving above the previous cycle resistance from yesterdays close and globex session. ON the 2nd 13500 bar price very briefly test the new Support and rallied for more than 5pts breaking into new high, The Volume Profile showed NO signs of stopping, the Next Virgin POC was at 1218. The Next TOD came on a Re-entry in trend that broke into new highs. My entry was 1203.25 exit @ 1205.75. (
Note that we had a 5pt Gap Day type signaling a potential trending day. Also when we see Cycle Support/Resistance on multiple time frames from Previous days, ie.Globex session we should be fully aware of these and look to take signal around this price zone.)
WHAT I DONE BETTER:
I could have waited a bit longer for a 1s1k, when price continues to hoover around a specific number (high/Low) that has already attempted to move in that direction, there is a good chance of price continuation, New highs/Lows. No Regrets.
I was able to catch a Re-Entry in trend for the remaining 2 pts needed to end the day.

INTANGIBLE OBSERVATIONS:
REMEMBER that the BEST re-entry after Obvious Trend Break is the first, when i see the 4500 push the extremes on multiple bars expect 1 reentry to retest the high. They may be more BUT this is the safest and most sure way to take advantage of a strong trend.


when price continues to hoover around a specific number (high/Low) that has already attempted to move in that direction, there is a good chance of price continuation, New highs/Lows.


Note that we had a 5pt Gap Day type signaling a potential trending day. Also when we see Cycle Support/Resistance on multiple frames from Previous day, Globex session we should be fully aware of these and look to take signal around this price zone.