Tuesday, August 30, 2011

5.5pt Gap Up = Choppy Range on light Volume Early, Reversal into Strong Up trend

Yesterday's Power On Close = Strength
Today's Open = Open @ 1151 GAP Dn (5.5pts)
Result = Choppy Range/late reversal into strong up trend
Today's TREND = late reversal before 7 bar stronge up trend
Today's 15 Minute Close Bar =UP @ 1204.75
Today's Power On Close = Weakness
Daily Volume = 2.57M Volume
Today's $TICK close = 900

R1 1206.25-1207, R2 1215, R3 1218, R4 1224
S1 1203-1204,(Globex) S2 1193.25-1194.75, S3 1187.75, S4 1179-80

Daily Market Bias For Tomorrow =  
-0.357 Moderate Range

Daily's are showing some signs of Weakness, ES closed as a long legged Doji which could indicate some slowing and indecision in the market. Today's close was a massive rush for the door, Globex will be interesting, we may see a large gap down through the current Gap Support zone. We are at a cycle resistance on the the Daily ES, INDU and NASDAQ but need to break the lows before we know for sure where things are headed. Conversely we may see a gap up overnight and another test of the days high around the 1218-1220 level


The Volume Profile
The Daily ES.D Profile Structure - Up Close, Normal Range, Normal Volume - neutral
The ES Globex Structure - In Balance, Narrow Range, Normal Volume. - neutral

TRADE OF THE DAY:
Today was a pretty choppy as we traded within a fairly tight range early. The TOD was actually a News Release trade that did Not provide very clear direction as there was No real trend at the time of release. However there were signs of weakness showing up prior to the move down. @ the 1206 area we had probars at each tick chart peak and exhaustion on the 1500. An entry here would have provided a quit 12 pt profit exiting on the 1500 probar and Exhaustion signal.

WHAT I COULD HAVE DONE BETTER:
My Entries could have been alote better.
TRADE SELECTION WAS THE WORST - traded like a pure amateur where everything is the opposite.
I could be more patient after a trade to find better opportunities. DON'T RUSH THE SEQUENCES
Overall i felt just OK but I Don't have real regrets.


SOLUTIONS:
Remember that you are in control, don't allow the market behavior to influence my own behavior.
Don't Rush Trades, be patient between trades to get the best opportunities, Especially after loses you need to sit back and watch the action prior to the next entry.


WHAT I DID BETTER:
was able to cut loses at mental markers where i no longer liked my position, and felt OK with it.

INTANGIBLE OBSERVATIONS:
Don't take trades directly off the 500 tick, it should only be used as a fine tuner,
In more choppy volatile markets look to trade off the 4500 tick.
500 tick trend re-entries are to be used in very strong breaks into trends where the early pullbacks are fast.