Monday, August 22, 2011

23pt Gap Up = Early sell off and Slow Motion Consolidation

Yesterday's Power On Close = Weakness
Today's Open = Open @ 1146.25 GAP UP (23.pts)
Result = Early Selling / Dn Trend
Today's TREND = Early Dn Trend
Today's 15 Minute Close Bar =UP @ 1124.00
Today's Power On Close = Strength
Daily Volume = 2.75M  Volume
Today's $TICK close = 631

Daily Market Bias For Tomorrow =  
-0.643 Moderate Bear

Daily's are showing some Mixed signals as we closed Down but off the low on Block Volume at Key Cycle Support. The 40500 has bounce with probars stepping in at a 2nd cycle after EOT, BUT there is NO Divergence? Price Gaped Up 23 pts in Globex and drifting down for the day on average volume.  If Prices Gap higher on the Open, I'll look for Professional Selling to step in Early, probars breaks and 500 re-entry's may be the play. Also If Price breaks below the 1120 Level I'm expecting a test at the 1100 area where some stops may get hit and we could see long term traders Exiting. I still see alote of supply potential so I'm bearish.

TRADE OF THE DAY:
The TOD was the early break of the 1500 tick probar to the downside, this sync with the 500 tick that printed probars and rambos a clue for bar break entries @ the 1142-1143. Price sold off to a morning low of 1135 over the next 45 minutes.

WHAT I COULD HAVE DONE BETTER:
Was back away, there were Not many setups after the opening sell off, and prices did not follow thru with conviction.
Stop after 2 consecutive scratches and gauge the potential for the day, before the next sequence.
I should have noted the pace better.
INTANGIBLE OBSERVATIONS:
Remember that you cant rush the market, Observe the pace!! If things are slow and there is no news, you will have to be more patient and allow things to play out. 


Trust my Analysis and stick to the natural stops, Focus on the Exits. Most of my winners are held from 5-15 minutes.