Monday, May 2, 2011

May DAY!! on the Front Line

Yesterday's TREND = Bullish RANGE
Yesterday's Power On Close = STRENGTH
Today's Open = Gap Up (2.25 points) 
Result = Continuation and Bearish Range
Today's TREND = Continuation Early Reversal to Bearish Down Trend
Today's 15 Minute Close Bar =Up@ 1357.75
Today's Power On Close = Weakness
Daily Volume = 1.7 Average
Today's $TICK close = UP@ +242

Daily Market Bias =  - 0.786 Moderate Bear

Today was the basic early reversal continuation from the previous Days Globex session. After a Daily Rambo on Friday we saw a True Range Day form by the 9bar a solid Down Trend was underway.
4500 down Trend

Daily ES charts

TRADE OF THE DAY
There were a few good trades starting with the Open Ice Breaker that sold off from the 1364.75 area to the 1361.75. At this point We got a bounce at the POC low volume zone that synced with a 5/45 which was good for 4pts All before 7 bar zone.
After the 9 bar we got a solid Trend Line Rejection on the 4500 for move of 6.5pt top to bottom. the 5/15 synced with EOT on the 500 on a double top.






What I could do Better
Was allow the trades to play out, usually there are a few more points in the move, use POCs and S/R and stick to them. Avoid reversing unless all the signs of reversal are in place while in a position. timing wont be perfect, so allowing the trade to play out is critical.

INTANGIBLE OBSERVATIONS:
If we get conflicting cycles (ie. 5/45 & 1500 opposing) STICK WITH THE MOST CURRENT TREND.

Open ice move last till 3rd bar from Open on 13,500.

Largest move of the morning usually last for about an hour! So if we catch the reversal after the Open Ice expect a peak at 7 Zone.

Price reacted to Point of LEAST Volume on Profile very well on the FIRST TEST. the bounce was solid.
Later we saw a move down thru the Previous days POC which is bearish for tommarrow.