7 Bar Confirmed Trend... then Hard Sell Off

Yesterday's TREND = Tight Range Up trend..

Yesterday's Power On Close = Strength

Today's Open = GAP Down (2.25pts)

Result = Early Gap test down then Bounce into Up trend till 7 bar correction and continued up trend.

Today's TREND = Steady Down trend then Hard Sell off after 7 bars

Today's 15 Minute Close Bar =Dn@ 1339.75

Today's Power On Close = Strength

Daily Volume = 2.1M Low Volume

Today's $TICK close = UP@ +218

Daily Market Bias For Tomorrow = 

 0.357 Modest Bull

Today we had some good opportunities to the down side starting with the Open Ice Breaker that moved 2.25pt on Globex momentum, we then had a weak test of the gap area and a solid PB good for 3+ pts as an appitizer. But trade of the day was full course entre!!
Tommarrow we could see a bounce off the lows prior to more selling back into what appears to be the start of long down trend. Conversly we have Strength to the left with Hight Volume, If we get a NoS close today we may start to see re distribution patterns and that bounce could be longer.

TRADE OF THE DAY

Trade of the day came on 7 bar Confirmation of Trend continuation, 

Clue #1 on the 15 Minute 6:45 we got a block bar down but off the lows. 

Clue #2 7:00 bar closed up on lower volume. From this point we see weakness with lower volume and same close price (Doji) followed by weak test of Resistance.

On the tick charts we got a 5/15 sync with Flush signal at 7zone then Divergence and No Demand at cycle resistance. We also had 13,500 Pivot holding as resistance along with a POC level from previous day. 

 (13,500 and 1500 tick failing at resistance red lines are POC levels)

(15 minute shoes 7 bar trend continuation clues)

The Results was Hard Sell Off good for 10 points in a 30 minute runner that appeared to have No end. The Break down came at 1349 area and moved to 1334.75 lows.

What I COULD HAVE DONE BETTER

Scratch a Loss: I held a loss for an extended period of time, I remained focused and had a few opportunities to exit BUT instead was stopped out at max loss. The main reason for this was because I TRADED AGAINST THE TREND!! I was aware of this at entry, but went against my thinking. It felt wrong, which often times means that it is right. After reviewing this trade, My analysis was simple wrong. There was NO exhaustion behind the entry, No Probars on the lows on the 1500, 500,1 or 2 minutes charts!! No Confirmation of any significance at all, even the 1500 cycle was crimped and Not flipping up. This was a bad trade across the board. 

SOLUTION

Be sure to Confirm Trend before Entering If trade goes away from entry and stays.. look to scratch it once the market shows its hand.
Usually trades with the trend can feel wrong but listen to this feeling and act in opposition to it as many armatures are feeling the same way.

INTANGIBLE OBSERVATIONS

Wait for Exhaustion to show on 1500 tick, then enter on divergence signals to avoid Heat.

Conflicting Divergence at the 0 line is an indication of EXTREME balance and signals a breakout very soon especially after a Exhaustion or Flush Signal. Take the Trade Against S/R with Flush/Exhaust behind it.

500 tick example just prior to the LARGE 10 point Sell Off.

Always consider Lower Highs when shorting and Higher Lows when entering Long.

Think TIMING once the decision to enter in Trend Direction is Made.

Pre Open Momentum is Key to early trend and Ice Breaker.

Ask IS the OPEN bar lower than the LAST Pre Open Bar? Did it close on the lows? What type of Bar is this?
Today we say Blocks at the pre open that were broken on opening bar and entry bar. (Notice the Divergence at Globex highs also)