Yesterday's TREND = Up early, hard sell early then slow up trend after 8:30 low = Doji Day
Yesterday's Power On Close = Strength
Today's Open = Open @ 1343 GAP Up (4.5pt)
Result = GAP Seal and RANGE
Today's TREND = RANGE triangle
Today's 15 Minute Close Bar =DN@ 1341.75
Today's Power On Close = Weakness
Daily Volume = 1.8M Low Volume (Blocks on the Daily)
Today's $TICK close = 34
Daily Market Bias For Tomorrow =
-0.571 Modest Bear
Today we saw price move in a symmetrical range with a close above yestarday high, however ES close off the highs indicating some weakness, as we approach the funnel end of the symmetrical triangle I'm expect a break to the upside if price moves past the 1350 area that we have not tested this week, and Friday could be the catalyst. Conversely if price breaks below the 1335 then we could see a sell off next week.
15 minute look Gap Seal, Reverse and Then Range
TRADE OF THE DAY
came early on a 15/4500 sync both EOT's on the 500 we saw an overshoot but with No Demand at the tops. The News released confirmed the setup and price quickly broke down from 1344 entry to 1339 area for 5 points.
4500 EOT
1500 EOT
500 Overshoot
WHAT I COULD HAVE DONE BETTER
was scratch losses, I saw that price was set to sell off BUT was stp on the break above 4500 EOT Resistance. this was classic Stop hunting and leaves little room for the little guy with less than a 4 point stop. Had I scratched the trade early I would have been able to lock a better entry for the same move once it broke back below EOT S/R. This tells me why one good descision leads to another.
I entered on a 5/15 after the News Whipsaw out of haste. While there was an actual setup the environment was NOT conducive for the entry. After the first Loss I needed more time to observe the action as Price was still reeling from the news release.
SOLUTIONS
I have to scratch Losses early. The difference between good and bad days are very slight. If i can minimize damage then I can live to fight another day. This should be a focal point of improvement. Revisit Time Stops and allow more room for price to move. Many times my analysis is correct but is nullified by my stop.
Take time to understand a loss prior to entering on the next trade, this will bring things back into perspective and allow for a better sequence.
THEME OF THE DAY
Stopped out on the tick again-
INTANGIBLE OBSERVATION
Don't Set Stops at round numbers (ie. 2pts, 3pts instead use 2.75, 3.75, 4.25 etc) Too often I get stopped on the tick prior to moving back in favor.
Ice Breakers that have tight range Opens that are Consolidated should be Avoided.
4500 EOT need to show Divergence, ideally we want Exhaustion prior to the EOT and entering after the divergence has shown up.
Focus mainly on your exit as opposed to Stops.
We had a 4.5 pt Gap and Market Bias had Strong Rang Day, connect the Gap # with the market bias for stronger Bias confirmation. Today Was a Perfect forecast.
Subtle Mistakes and missed opportunities are the difference between good and bad trading. The day can be tipped very easily in one direction or the other with only the slightest errors. For example, when i miss an opportunity the profit NOT gained can come back to bite when we suffer our next loss. The realized profits serve as shields ultimately defending against the losses that are sure to come.
One decision to hold a STAGNANT position can BLOCK your view of a better entry or a Reversal. That better entry can be the defense needed to avoid being stopped out with minimum loss. Today was a perfect example of this, Had I scratched the stagnant trade early I would have been able to lock a better entry for the same move once it broke back below EOT S/R instead of being stopped out on the upthrust.
Be very mindful of the seemingly small decisions to hold to stopped out, To re-enter in the same direction or to reverse. All these are skills that need to be honed to tip the balance of consistency in our favor. Notice that Barry is rarely stopped out for the whole 4 points. He uses wide stops to provide clarity as to when to cut the losses and allow the price room move. I have noticed that when I set a stop I tend to allow it to be hit as opposed to scratching for a small loss particularly when the trade showed some signs of going my way (ie. move a point or so then reversed) listen for the market fighting a direction.
I conclude that once we commit to a stop price we feel the need to honer by Being STOPPED OUT.
To resolve this issue I will not rush to set stops, and use wider stops that are NOT round in number.
Conversely when we cut losses too fast we miss solid moves and can even began to BALK excessively. (ie. you scratch a trade and it moves in your initial direction, then you reenter and the price reverses a few points, then you scratch again.) This is very costly and can amount to lost points and commissions.
The solution is recognizing and feeling the signs that the trade my not work early.
The solution is recognizing and feeling the signs that the trade my not work early.