Yesterday's TREND = Bearish Down Trend
Yesterday's Power On Close = Weakness
Today's Open = No GAP
Result = Continuation and Bearish Range
Today's TREND = Continuation Early Sell off into Bearish Down Trend
Today's 15 Minute Close Bar =Dn@ 1343.00
Today's Power On Close = Weakness
Daily Volume = 2.3M High Volume
Today's $TICK close = DN@ -42
Daily Market Bias = - 1.214 Moderate/Strong Bear
Today was an early sell off to test the lows. This was a continuation from the Globex highs and previous days close, we could see a bounce if we cant crack the 1337.00 area that is the New Support from the Daily EOT.
TRADE OF THE DAY
Was the Open Ice Breaker good for 2pt after cracking the 13,500 Low. But the signs were there with Globex highs showing High volume on the 1500 tick and failing to retest in the pre open, this along with NO GAP is a clear sign of the opening resuming the globex trend.
(Notice 1500 tick NOD,ST, and Pro Bars! at the Globex Highs)
The main trade of the day came on a crimped cycle turn at on the 4500 tick (that never crossed), this had NO confluence and was rather eratic as it came on the heels of the bearish ISM news release which is why there was NO clear Confluence on this move. REMEMBER the NEWS will always confirm the most recent trend.
WHAT I COULD HAVE DONE BETTER
was not rush the Open, this was due to me being late on workout, I didnt properly asses the Globex and Pre Open activity. This would have prompted me to take my usual Open Ice Breaker that would have kept me focused on the trend.
Instead I took a setup that was:
#1 against the globex and Pre Open trend.
#2 It was PRIOR to the Open Ice Breaker
that played out perfectly. (i basically chose a higher risk trade over the proven Low risk Ice Breaker. NEVER TAKE TRADES PRIOR TO THE OPEN ICE BREAKER!!
#3 The 4500 cycle was Crimped and never crossed and 1500 showed exhustion (a potential start of a trend) when Not yet confirmed with DIVERGENCE.
I was able to manage the trade for a small loss but still a poor trade indeed and considering I missed the Open Ice breaker it was costly all around.
I was able to manage the trade for a small loss but still a poor trade indeed and considering I missed the Open Ice breaker it was costly all around.
INTANGIBLE OBSERVATIONS:
Dont Enter Against the trend.
Take note of the 15 minute close! yestarday we saw high volume and a Inside bar signaling potential for a large move on the OPEN.
Remember that Closes Below the prior days POC are Bearish.
Closes Above the prior days POC are Bullish.
Stay Casual about your entry's (like the afternoon setups) BUT DONT trade over confident. In the afternoon I tend to let the trades come to me instead of chasing. Get out of time with your thinking (ie. stay casual)
Dont enter in an old cycle (ie. going long and the Cycle is ABOVE 0 LINE and Aging) This is a sign that the price is Fighting or Ignoring the Cycle.
