Yesterday's TREND = Down
Yesterday's Power On Close = Weakness
Today's Open = Open @ 1331 GAP Down (3pt)
Result = Immediate Gap Seal Then Reverse to lows
Today's TREND = Up early, hard sell early then slow up trend after 8:30 low = Doji Day
Today's 15 Minute Close Bar =DN@ 1325.25
Today's Power On Close = Strength
Daily Volume = 2.28M High Block Volume
Today's $TICK close = -54
Daily Market Bias For Tomorrow =
.643 Modest / Moderate Bull
Today we saw a 3pt Gap Seal that reversed hard with a 10 point sell off. We broke the daily lows and appear to be in down trend. Im expecting corrections at High time frame peaks in the next coming days. The Daily @ES formed a Doji with Block Volume so a break above todays high would be bullish and could lead to a test of the 1351 area.
TRADE OF THE DAY
Was a Reversal trade that setup just prior to the 7 zone. It came with Double Exhaustion on the 1500 tick and the 4500 tick, This trade synced with the 13,500 also. It was tricky because there was No Probars on the 1500, But we did get solid Pro bars on the 500. An entry at the 1327.75 area provided a good sell off to the 1319 area where we saw exhaustion and probars to slow things down.
(4500 TOD shows Exhaustion at peak with Probars preceeding)
The 1500 tick shows probars and Exhaustion prior to 8 point sell off.
WHAT I COULD HAVE DONE BETTER
The first thing is to NOT OVERTRADE, today I put on 7 trades total. This will destroy my account if not checked.
The second thing is NOT to trade in the Dead Zone consolidation. Especially against recent Exhaustion and Background Strength.
I must allow my trade to play out, when I have Exhaustion and probars behind with a trend then the odds are in my favor and I need to trust my reason for entry.
The second thing is NOT to trade in the Dead Zone consolidation. Especially against recent Exhaustion and Background Strength.
I must allow my trade to play out, when I have Exhaustion and probars behind with a trend then the odds are in my favor and I need to trust my reason for entry.
Never Enter Prior to ICE BREAKER!! DUMMY
I let a perfect Ice Breaker Pass!! all was good with EOT and Exhaust at the Globex lows, with BLOCKS on Open bar. The move was good for 6 minimum. (the break was on a 3pt gap dn)
13,500 perfect Ice Breaker (Notice Price fails on test of lows of the open bar)
A look at the 2 minute probar break up
POOR TRADES
Mostly All my losers (3 consecutive) came after 7 bar zone, and where ALL against 1500 tick Exhaustion & Trend 2 came within an hour apart!!
This is a time when i lose focus.. Lay Lay and feezah get active and the market may not follow thru.The 1st of these trades was a classic Resistance consolidation that never follows thru. I shorted @ 1319 The Hint to PASS on this trade was there was NO PROBAR AT THE RESISTANCE TOP
(look at the Red arrows on the 1500 & 500 tick, also see the 500 cycle to the long side)
The 2nd & 3rd Poor Entry's came 10 minutes apart in the same direction short @ 1320 & 1322.75 Both Stop Out. (The Key here was both trades were taken short into SUPPORT and AGAINST the TREND and Exhaustion)
The 2nd trade had NO cycle sync at ALL!!
The 3rd had one 1500 cycle but NO sync to confirm. (look at red arrows)
The 4500 turns at resistance BUT HAS NO PROBARS to confirm.
In Summery,
1. We should Never Enter without Probar Volume confirmation.
2. Dont Trade against the Trend. (here we were clearly in an accumulation stage and trending UP)
3. Dont Trade against 1500 Exhaustion especially after a large sell off that had probars to stop the run.
4. If you get stopped out, Dont reenter in the same direction without first understanding exactly why the trade failed!!
I felt the need to continue trading when all signs including my mind said the day is over, Especially after a large move has already played out.
SOLUTION
Always take advantage of good opportunities. These trades will come back to bite you in many ways. They can cause you to loose focus due to Regret thinking, Revenge trading and ultimately be the points needed to close the day early.
Listen for the End of the Day.. You can tell when its time to pack it in and start the analysis. When you had a good start and the market moves strong in one direction the professionals will probably go home for lunch and the opportunities will dry up. During dead zone trust nothing, we get more Conflicting signals, false breaks and follow thru etc. Know when to book profits for the day. Today Ignored that voice and forced trades that were Not reliable.
Remember that once a cycle plots the S/R then we look for Volume to confirm, and dont worry about the Sine linning up as the S/R plots are more important. This confirms the entry without the common timing cycle thinking. The TOD was very Obvious with confirmation.
Listen for the End of the Day.. You can tell when its time to pack it in and start the analysis. When you had a good start and the market moves strong in one direction the professionals will probably go home for lunch and the opportunities will dry up. During dead zone trust nothing, we get more Conflicting signals, false breaks and follow thru etc. Know when to book profits for the day. Today Ignored that voice and forced trades that were Not reliable.
INTANGIBLE OBSERVATIONS
ALWAYS NOTE WHERE 1500 TICK EXHAUSTION IS LOCATED and ENTER with Exhaustion behind you!!
Time of day
When Lay Lay and Fiz get Up thats usually a good time to STOP trading!!
When you start with a good day its best to quit while ahead!!