Today ES moved down immdiately after failing at the overnight highs at 1344.50 area where the daily down trend line of the symetrical triangle held as Resistance, from here ES was unable to break above 1341 and proceeded to sell off hard on the close. This would indicate further selling in the coming week. But we have bullish exhaustion across the boards on the 15 minute, 13,500, 4500 and 1500 tick charts. when we put in a cycle support with Divergence we could see a correction or bounce as price has not yet broker the lower trend line of the triangle on the @ES Daily and has not touched the cycle support. And 40,500 cycle is turning up.
The ES.D shows that we have broken a longer term trend line and could get more selling pressure or some consolidation for a few days.
(Blocks volume on wide spread Down bar) if we do not continue lower early in the week this would be a sign of strength in the market and I will expect a range or correction bounce to be the play.
TRADE OF THE DAY
Open Ice Breaker was the TOD, a 1 shot 1 kill opportunity. The early clues showed up the Globex session and confirmed in the pre-open. We had an EOT on the 13,500 along with 1500 and 4500 cycle syncs on the close with probars. In Globex a test of this area failed with rambos peaking at resistance with divergence. The market traded lower on block activity and bounced on the pre-open. The Opening bar had block activity that closed on the lows after failing to crack the Pivot Resistance. The move was good for 10 points total from the 1338 break to the 1328 low. But 1500 Exhaustion came in at 1334.50.
WHAT I COULD HAVE DONE BETTER
Time studying the Globex and pre-open analysis, i did NOT get a good look at the globex session last night and i missed the pre-open. Thus i did not trust my ice breaker missing a great opportunity again this week. My Bias was correct but ingored?!@#
Respect my bias unless proven wrong. The Bias was to the short side but I entered a long that synced on the 1500 and 500. the signal was weak as price never moved in favor and broke below support fast. THESE ARE MAJOR CLUES to exit right away or Reverse. The down trend was consistent with my Bias and a confirmation of the Ice Breaker.
SOLUTIONS:
Be sure to review the Charts prior to going to bed and Don't Miss the pre-open. look for strong Ice Breaker clues.
Respect your Bias for the day, and be mindful of signals that will disprove it.
Look for the MAJOR CLUES to scratch or Reverse position.
#1 Price moves away from entry immediately
#2 Price spends little or NO TIME in favor.
#3 Price breaks S/R plot on 500, 1500 or 4500 tick charts, basically fighting the Cycle.
THEME IF THE DAY
Pre-prep focus Scratch loses and Respect Daily Bias.
INTANGIBLE OBSERVATIONS:
Block volume on the open bar that forms a profit taking close is a strong Ice Breaker Confirmation.
Failed Test in the Globex session is a clue that may show the path of least resistance for the pre-open.
