Yesterday's Power On Close = Strength
Today's Open = Open @ 1312.25 GAP UP(5.75 pts)
Result = Gap Test of lows, Reversal into BULL TREND
Today's TREND = Bull Trend after reversing lows/Midday sell off.
Today's 15 Minute Close Bar =Down @ 1312.50
Today's Power On Close = Weakness
Daily Volume = 2.3M high Volume
Today's $TICK close = 101
Daily Market Bias For Tomorrow =
-0.429 Modest Bear
Daily's are pinned at the Trend Channel Top of 1310 after Rally on the FOMC statement. However we did NOT close below this point, The 1310 is critical support and must be broken on high volume. If we fail to crack this level overnight I'll Expect some consolidation tomarrow.
TRADE OF THE DAY:
The TOD was the rally move at 7:00 o'clock News release, This was set up early on yesterdays Strong close and confirmed with Strength in the Globex session. The Best way to play this move was PATIENTS, The Day type was an early reversal and Trend day and the Bias was Moderate to Strong BULL. So we want to wait for the pull back prior to entering, the closer we can wait till 7:00 the better. The biggest moves usually come on 1500 tick Cycles and 500tick overshoots. This is exactly what happened prior to the news release. We had Probars with Exhaustion on the 1500tick low, 4500 probars at BB low, and Probars with Divergence on the 500 tick low price of 1314-1314.75. The Best Entry was the 1315 bar break that rallied to 1323 before any signs of slowing showed up, However on days such as this one price will continue to drift on the news usually to the close.
prior days close (Notice the Probar closing on the bottom wide fairly wide spread = Sign Of Strength)
Ticks with 4500 Globex Strength.
prior days close (Notice the Probar closing on the bottom wide fairly wide spread = Sign Of Strength)
Ticks with 4500 Globex Strength.
WHAT I COULD HAVE DONE BETTER:
I Could have Been i little more patient on my initial trade and concept as i clearly could see that we may trade lower to the 1314 price prior to resuming uptrend. The day type and Bias confirmed the prior days close and Globes session.
SOLUTION:
TRUST YOUR IDEAS AND STICK WITH THEM!!,
Keep the timing in mind by using the News and 7 bar zone.
INTANGIBLE OBSERVATIONS:
Stay with your first mind, my original concept of trading to 1314 prior to resuming the up trend was totally correct, however I was too early to enter and exit.
When Trading the News ie. FOMC Statements etc. Stick with the Current Trend, Look for Strength /Weakness in the background, If the News is at 7:00 USE the GLOBEX Strength/Weakness as the directional base. THE MARKET MAY start to drift against the trend and even spike to catch stops and scare the Public out BEFORE the move in Trend.
However be patient and hold on, the spike prior to the 7:00 news may be the perfect entry.
(Notice the Strength in the Globex session(never retesting the lows) and Spike at 1314.25 level scaring the public and catching stops)
