Yesterday's Power On Close = Strength
Today's Open = Open @ 1323.00 GAP(19 pt)
Result = Tight Drifter Down
Today's TREND = Tight Drifter Till 7 bar
Today's 15 Minute Close Bar =Down @ 1318.50
Today's Power On Close = Weakness
Daily Volume = 2.43M high Volume
Today's $TICK close = -248
Daily Market Bias For Tomorrow =
-0.857 Moderate/STRONG BEAR
Daily Weakness played out today in the pre-open and beyond. Price was Quickly rejected at the Gap test and proceeded to sell off. Looking forward we may see more weakness till around the 1310 level where we saw previous support at the Old @ES.D Cycle. Also notice the top of the old Down trend Channel is in play, we could see a bounce or break of this area overnight, if we break this support we could be looking at 1260's over the next week or so, Thus Pull backs on the 1500 and 500 may be the best plays
TRADE OF THE DAY:
The Globex session sold off more than 19 pts with blocks pushing prices lower on the pre-open. The Bias Was - Range, when ever we get this price tends to drift with the Globex momentum. Today that momentum was short. The TOD Had NO tick Sync but rather a 1 and 5 minute sync with the 1500 @ 1327 level. The best entry here was between 1325-1327. This entry moved 10pts by the 7 bar.
A look at the time Sync
A view of the Tick Syncs (Notice the Top BB rejection and Divergence across the board at the Peak of all Ticks charts)
WHAT I COULD HAVE DONE BETTER:
Everything!!
I could have Taken a 2pt profit that turned into a loser.
The Day Type Suggest using tighter targets BUT i IGNORED IT AGAIN!!
I entered early on impulse with very little thought or analysis of the Open and should have been more patient.
My bias was good but I Abandoned it too early
My Exits were HORRIBLE!! I Benched myself EARLY!!
I failed to Properly Identify the Day Type
The ES was already in a Down trend on the 4500 tick with NO support in site.
The Entry should have been on the Failure of the top 4500 BB with Divergence, There was also divergence on the 1500 & 500 cycle resistance. Good clue to take profit.
The ES was already in a Down trend on the 4500 tick with NO support in site.
The Entry should have been on the Failure of the top 4500 BB with Divergence, There was also divergence on the 1500 & 500 cycle resistance. Good clue to take profit.
SOLUTION:
Re-Examine the Day Type and how to trade them, Wide Gap days must be treated as Range Drifters. Entering on PB in trend with the Globex trend.
Be aware of the MOST current Trend and look for corrections to enter.
Be aware of the MOST current Trend and look for corrections to enter.
INTANGIBLE OBSERVATIONS:
Know what the internals are saying prior to entering.
Stick with the Bias especially if the Profile is Trending in the Globex Session confirming the Bias.
Market Profile is Trending in the globex session look to ONLY trade in that direction, taking PB in trend on the lower time frames.
Im noticing when the $TICK Closes and Opens Down Prices will trend down for and extended period. The Moving Ave tends to stay below 0 Line signaling strong trending potential.
Be sure that you ask yourself questions such as:
Is the globex trend confirming my bias?
Has the pre-open changed my bias?
Is there ANY indication that my bias should be abandoned?
Does the Day type support my Bias?