Wednesday, July 27, 2011

-20+ pt Bear Run as Daily's Print Double Top with Exhaustion & Divergence

Yesterday's Power On Close = Strength
Today's Open = Open @ 1321.25 GAP Dn(5 pts)
Result = Early Down trend 
Today's TREND =  Dn Trend 
Today's 15 Minute Close Bar =Down @ 1299.50
Today's Power On Close = 
Daily Volume = 3.4M High Volume
Today's $TICK close = -1062

Daily Market Bias For Tomorrow 
-0.357 MODEST BEAR

Daily's are showing Signs of short term Weakness as price was sold off more than 20 pts on the day back down to the top of the old trend channel. This Happened on Huge Volume, over 3.4 million contract traded. The Next Stop is the 1290 level, We may get a bounce here prior to resuming a down trend
(notice the Double Top with Exhaustion on the 1st and Divergence on the second)



TRADE OF THE DAY:
There were Multiple trades of the day, all to the downside starting with an Open Ice Breaker that sold off more than 10 pts in the opening 45 minutes. The Entry was at 1319.25 maxing at 1315.25 in 5 minutes.


WHAT I COULD HAVE DONE BETTER:
Readjusted pretty well and took small profits to recover

SOLUTION:
Know your Pro-Open Bias and stick with it!!

INTANGIBLE OBSERVATIONS:
On Reversal look for BB to cross 1/2 Line. When this happens in the Globex session or pre-Open and is not violated, trade only in that direction on the open. Be Patient Price Cannot revers without 1st crossing the 1/2 line.
Look for 1/2 line breaks prior to 7 bar to signal strong chance of reversal and continuation.
Confirm with Background Strength/Weakness