Thursday, July 21, 2011

And The Bull Goes ON... With pre News Rally after poor Unemployment numbers??

Yesterday's Power On Close = Strength
Today's Open = Open @ 1321.50 GAP UP(7.5 pts)
Result = Early Break Into Up Trend
Today's TREND =  Up Trend
Today's 15 Minute Close Bar =Down @ 1342.75
Today's Power On Close = Strength
Daily Volume = 2.3M Volume
Today's $TICK close = 648

Daily Market Bias For Tomorrow 
0.0 STRONG RANGE

Daily's are showing Signs Strength as price crashed through the 1330's and the long standing Cycle Resistance on all Daily's. We are now running into a Bullish Cyclical support shortly on the Dailys that could push prices to the previous Bin Laden Highs @ 1368 level. But we must be caution heading into the weekend we have Exhaustion showing up the 135, Im expecting slow congestion and possibly a tight range for the morning. However If we break above 1346 the next stop could be 1352-1354.

TRADE OF THE DAY:
The came early on a pullback in tren onthe 1500 tick, This was an overshoot which prooved a bit tricky, The 500 tick nailed the low but the best entry was a break above the next 500 tick cycle resistance @ 1329 area. An entry here immediately rallied 5.5 pts to 1334.50 before pulling back then continuing the 2nd wave of the rally peaking at 1341.50.



WHAT I COULD HAVE DONE BETTER:
Be a bit more patient, my original entry was at a perfect price but i bailed too early and had to reenter at a slightly worse price to catch the same move.

Overall a bit better than previous days

SOLUTION:
Really focus on the overall morning trend and stick with it especially if it matches our bias.

INTANGIBLE OBSERVATIONS:
On news rallies try to hold the trade until professional step in in big numbers, Price will normally pullback then continue to rally, look for reentry's PB in the trend on the 500 tick.

Today showed another Good Example of what we want to see prior to entering on a midday reversal Understanding that reversal take time to play out!!





1st we saw weakness come into the market as probars appeared on the higher time frames 13500, 4500.

2nd we saw BB shrink as the 1/2 line was tested. (Up arrow shows BB 1/2/ line test, Down Arrow shows rejection with low volume test)
3rd Once the BB 1/2 line is broken I want to see it retested on low volume or Quick rejection.

This in addition to our basic cycle syncs and 7 bar peaks confirm a midday reversal that has high probability for success.