Yesterday's Power On Close = Strength
Today's Open = Open @ 1333.75 GAP Down(18 pt)
Result = Bull Range (Low Volatility)
Today's TREND = Tight Range UP Trend Till 7 bar
Today's 15 Minute Close Bar =Down @ 1341.75
Today's Power On Close = Weakness
Daily Volume = 2.53M high Volume
Today's $TICK close = -40
Daily Market Bias For Tomorrow =
-0.071 STRONG RANGE
Daily's trying to make an attempt to move thru the Gap Zone that has held for the past week. However the market appears to be Weak on its incline. The Rambos at the high cant be ignored and Friday we closed up on fairly high Volume. Im expecting a Range Day and will be very conservative looking for entry's at price extremes.
TRADE OF THE DAY:
The Globex session sold off more than 19 pts with blocks pushing prices lower on the pre-open. We got some strength in the pre open that pushed price into a Flush signal early then we got a PB on the 4500 tick cycle, This formed a double top with Divergence at the PB resistance that synced on the 1500 and 500 tick. The 13,500 also had a Flush Signal at the 1337 level. An entry around 1336-1338 provided a 6 point move
till the End Of Trend. Prices peaked at the 7 bar Low.
WHAT I COULD HAVE DONE BETTER:
Everything!!
I could have Taken Profit twice from the same entry.
The Day Type Suggest using tighter targets BUT i IGNORED IT!!
I entered early on impulse with very little thought or analysis of the Open and should have been more patient.
My Exits were HORRIBLE!! I didn't close out quick when I felt that i was against the trend!!
My preparation was lacking, i never analysed the Daily chart and included the pic in yesterdays blog. And I missed the Weakness on the Close.
SOLUTION:
Listen to the Day Type - had i done this i would have booked profit early and had a chance to reenter for another 2pts
Don't Stray away from the basic rules, look for cycle sync and use other info to confirm, such as Cycle Sync, Flush/Exhaustion on high time frames etc.
Be thorough in the Pre Prep Routine. I missed the WEAKNESS on the 15 Minute Chart, Price Closed at a previous Top on High Volume, I casually assumed Strength, when this was clearly weak. Had I spent more time analysing my charts This would have been evident.
The Market Bias is ONLY as Accurate As my Analysis, so I cant slack When formulating the Bias!!!
The Daily's Clearly showed a Reversal Pattern as price Gaped up. Closing Up on low volume Yestarday, then Gapped Down to Open below the Key GAP ZONE This Morning. This is HUGE Indication of WEAKNESS!! (island Reversal type bar)
High Time Frame Chart from Yestarday.
INTANGIBLE OBSERVATIONS:
When the Vol on the Tape shows action 2-3 ticks away from inside price, that is a direction indication and must adhered to.
The SPX constantly Down was a huge HINT that prices were set to sell off.
Don't focus too much on the Tape prior to entering, this can blind you of the larger picture. Remember the tape is primarily an Exit tool. The Tape only Confirms the Larger Trend.
When the Globex session crashes 10+ points, Look for momentum in that direction.
When the Market Bias Shows little change at Extremes, Be Aware that the Revers of the Bias may be in play, ie the bias was very quite, No Exhaustion of Flush Signals at all, Yet Volume was lower on the day.