Friday, July 29, 2011

13pt Gap Down = Major Volitility on the Open as price find a low early

Yesterday's Power On Close = Strength
Today's Open = Open @ 1301 GAP Dn(13 pts)
Result = Up Trend
Today's TREND =  Up Trend 
Today's 15 Minute Close Bar =Down @ 1292.50
Today's Power On Close = Strength
Daily Volume = 3.3M High Volume
Today's $TICK close = -564

Daily Market Bias For Tomorrow 
1.357 MODERATE Bull

Daily's are showing Signs of short term Strength with the ES printing a Profit Taking Bar on very High Volume. The 40500 has printed a PB in trend so test of the lows should bring an EOT on that time frame. However we still have some selling Cycles to get thru. Goin into next week im expecting some test of lows then a possible rally later in the week or day.

TRADE OF THE DAY:
The TOD came early on a 1500 Cycle with 500 overshoot. We had an EOT on the 4500 tick and prices struggled on the low, our BB tightening with bullish divergence in the background. We also had  bullish Exhaustion with a probar stepping in @1278. The best entry here was at 1280 confirmation of the wide spread down bar close on the low. This trade maxed out at 1289 with its 1st probar and Exhaustion signal. However this probar showed up on the right side on the 500 tick indicating more upside potential, as price eventually traded higher.

WHAT I HAVE DONE BETTER:
Traded very well today I hesitated 1 time but stayed patient for solid reentry.
Took full advantage of BB 1/2 line break on the 4500

INTANGIBLE OBSERVATIONS:
REMEMBER that strong moves are still in play until we see professionals stepping in on the high/lows.

Also note That when we get probars on the right side of the uptrend peak, they cannot be trusted!!. This is buying and signals an eventual continuation of the rally.

Thursday, July 28, 2011

.5 pt Gap Up = Early Bounce as Professional Jump on Wholesale Prices After Yestardays Fire Sale

Yesterday's Power On Close = Strength
Today's Open = Open @ 1301 GAP Up(.5 pts)
Result = Early Up trend 
Today's TREND =  Dn Trend 
Today's 15 Minute Close Bar =Down @ 1297.50
Today's Power On Close = Strength
Daily Volume = 3.1M High Volume
Today's $TICK close = -431

Daily Market Bias For Tomorrow 
-0.286 MODERATE RANGE

Daily's are showing Signs of short term Weakness again as prices break below the old trend line top and tries to find a low. We also have the Daily's cycling into a PB in trend to the downside. However the 13,500 is poised for an EOT bounce and we could get a rally into the weekend. Today the Profile formed a dirty b-pattern signaling a weaker downside possibility, a break above 1300 could be the catalyst for a rally back to test the 1316 level. Im expecting some consolidation after 2 days of trend moves but im on the lookout for breaks into trends.




TRADE OF THE DAY:
The TOD came on an Open Ice Break @ 1302.50 that took alote of heat prior to and after the Home Sales Numbers, Testing the 1300 Lever multiple times But the prevailing Wind of the Globex and Pre-Open Background Pushed Prices Higher for a 1 shot 1 kill opportunity. However The Early Uptrend appeared to be shaky basing at what appears to be a short term top forming.
(Notice the Consolidated Open, BUT the 4500 1/2 Line and EOT in the Background were the Clues)



WHAT I COULD HAVE DONE BETTER:
Readjusted pretty well and took small profits 
Readjusted well with solid Reentry
Showed Good Patients and did not bail under heat, I stuck to the 4500 Trend.

SOLUTION:
Know your Pro-Open Bias and stick with it!!

INTANGIBLE OBSERVATIONS:
On Consolidated Opens, remember to trade with the 4500 Background Volume and BB 1/2 Line Side. you can count the number of crosses on each side then bias the side with the most successful crosses.