Yesterday's Power On Close = WeaknessStrength
Today's Open = Open @ 1200.75 GAP Dn (9.5 pts)
Result = Choppy Open, break out to 7zone then Consolidation.
Result = Choppy Open, break out to 7zone then Consolidation.
Today's TREND = early up trend then Flag for day.
Today's 15 Minute Close Bar =UP @ 1191.50
Today's Power On Close = Strength
Today's Power On Close = Strength
Daily Volume = 2.5M Volume
Today's $TICK close = 578
R1 1207 R2 1216 R3 R4
S1 1196-1198.(Globex) S2 1189 S3 1186 S4 1180
Daily Market Bias For Tomorrow =
-1.071 Moderate/Strong Bear
Daily's are showing some signs of Weakness. The ES closed Up today after an early rally then flag consolidation till the 9zone then rallied only to be sold off at the 12:00 zone to the close. The ES.D moved higher printing a Profit taking/Upthrust type bar after yesterday's end of a rising market bar. If we a NoD early then we may more selling into the week end. Conversely if we fail to break today's lows then we could see a test of today's highs. The ES has crossed but is yet to print a cyclical resistance so we are on alert for signs of weakness, but it may not play out until next week.
The ES Volume Profile has printed a symmetrical pattern showing balance at 1208 VPOC. There is considerable volume making up this value area from 1196.50 to 1216. Indicating a potential for a larger daily breakout. The ES show expanding value areas from the 1186 low to 1200 then to lesser but considerable degree the 1207 vpoc.
TRADE OF THE DAY:
The TOD was a Response to Background Strength appearing from Pre-Open.Block Volume on the 4500 at the 1198-1200 level was the Only Evidence. Price Crossed the BB multiple times (typical on a choppy open) But careful VSA analysis shows retesting of the lows but NO Supply is present at New Support. As price moves higher it is retested a last time with a BB break above then retest by moving again through the BB mid BUT closing above!! This is the key entry, just prior to the 710 Time Interval. A break above this probar is the highest probability entry. @ 1201-1202. Price breaks out from here eventually moving to 1209.75. But it took some good patients and respect for the Strength to hold. (Notice the arrows showing Block Volume Strength and Subsequent Retest of Supply. This would NOT be visible without the Block Volume Indicator.)
HOW I DID TODAY:
TRADE SELECTION - Great AA 15/5's & C 500 Re-entry
ENTRY'S - Good, No hesitation on 15/5. But I entered with No confirmation on the C 500 Re-entry (which is sloppy respect for rules as the C trades have less require criteria for qualification)
EXITS - Good exits, I closed too early Breaking another Rule of Exiting with little cause. Price never broke below a cluster that assumed would and stop me out. This was erroneous thinking as price eventually hit Max Target. I made up for this with a great exit on the C500 and Held the winners trades for 20+ minutes.
Self Talk/Mind Chatter: Good, No negativity. Good Observations.
Market Focus & Action: Good, Stayed focused on the Tape and the Background Strength and Weakness.
WHAT I CAN DO BETTER:
Honor the Rules-Honor the Rules, regardless of what else I do.
SOLUTIONS:
Restate and List the Basic Rules - Keep reminders of the basic rules and study them as well as the qualifying criteria for each entry. This is play book 101. Respect and Honer the Rules.
ENTRY'S - Good, No hesitation on 15/5. But I entered with No confirmation on the C 500 Re-entry (which is sloppy respect for rules as the C trades have less require criteria for qualification)
EXITS - Good exits, I closed too early Breaking another Rule of Exiting with little cause. Price never broke below a cluster that assumed would and stop me out. This was erroneous thinking as price eventually hit Max Target. I made up for this with a great exit on the C500 and Held the winners trades for 20+ minutes.
Self Talk/Mind Chatter: Good, No negativity. Good Observations.
Market Focus & Action: Good, Stayed focused on the Tape and the Background Strength and Weakness.
WHAT I CAN DO BETTER:
Honor the Rules-Honor the Rules, regardless of what else I do.
SOLUTIONS:
Restate and List the Basic Rules - Keep reminders of the basic rules and study them as well as the qualifying criteria for each entry. This is play book 101. Respect and Honer the Rules.
INTANGIBLE OBSERVATIONS:
Stick With Background Strength / Weakness - When we are able to Identify true Strength or Weakness, a focus on a Qualified sequence and confirmed entry is all that is left to provide the highest probability trade entry.
Signs of Price Rejection on the Tape
(notice the last price @ 1209.75 had 63 Trades!! After printing 7839 previously! This is Selling into the highs by Pro and No current interest by Pro's at that price)
Price may eventually return to the rejected level BUT it may take a substantial amount of time and heat before doing so.
Ask what are the Specialist is trying to get the public to do Prior to the Open - Today we had Block Volume on the 13,500 Tick and the 4500 tick Support levels.
Signs of Price Rejection on the Tape
- Price breaks into new ground.
- Then it breaks only by a tick or two and retreats (may have already broken by more but is now stalling)
- Volume bars print small number ie. 63 as price attempts the next break in direction.
- A general slowing down in activity. (I may see Rambos' or Probars around this area)
(notice the last price @ 1209.75 had 63 Trades!! After printing 7839 previously! This is Selling into the highs by Pro and No current interest by Pro's at that price)
Ask what are the Specialist is trying to get the public to do Prior to the Open - Today we had Block Volume on the 13,500 Tick and the 4500 tick Support levels.