Monday, October 24, 2011

2pt Gap Up = Tight Range Drifter

Yesterday's Power On Close = Weakness
Today's Open = Open @ 1236.00 GAP Up (2. pts)
Result = Tight range drifter
Today's TREND = Tight range drifter. Arc, Mushroom Top
Today's 15 Minute Close Bar =UP @ 1247.20
Today's Power On Close = Strength
Daily Volume = 2.0M Avg Volume
Today's $TICK close = 500
R1 1248 R2 1252 R3   R4 
S1 1243(Globex) S2 1239  S3 1235   S4 1226

Daily Market Bias For Tomorrow  
.429 Modest Bull

Daily's are showing some signs of Strength. The ES closed up for the 3rd consecutive day. We made New Highs while printing a mushroom type top on the 4500 and 15 Minute chart but remaining above 1244 support. Dow broke above yestardays highs and closed near its top in low volume. Test of todays lows will be clue as to how go from here, at the moment we are in an UPTREND.

The ES.D Profile printed a p-pattern day with price closing at the upper end. This is indicative of short covering on the open and just enough buying to push prices to new monthly highs. The VPOC is 1248. 
TRADE OF THE DAY:
The TOD was the opening bar 15/5 sync that had a 4500 PB in Trend as Support, Entries @ 1234 area saw price move to 1243-1244 before the 1st&2nd pro signal exits.

HOW I DID TODAY:
TRADE SELECTION - N/A
ENTRY'S N/A 
EXITS - N/A
Self Talk/Mind Chatter: N/A
Market Focus & Action: N/A


WHAT I CAN DO BETTER:
Be thorough with Ranked Criteria. The TOD was a rare trade that i passed on even though I like the odds. In staying discipline to my rules I pass due to uncirtainty of all the criteria for entry. Particularly the Block volume instead of the probars at the mid. This will get worked out as i get used to the  new block settings.


Trade Selection and Judgment- Dont trade against Strength/Weakness, Determine this first then move on to trend and Qualifying Sequences.


SOLUTIONS:
Restate and List the Basic Rules - Print the Rank Criteria and hand write them out. Keep reminders of the basic rules and study them as well as the qualifying criteria for each entry. This is play book 101. Respect and Honer the Rules.


INTANGIBLE OBSERVATIONS:
Exiting the Bad Trades -After entry price stays in the Red for most of the 1st five minutes. consider exiting to cut your losses.


Clues that Price is Turning, What to Look For: $Tick bars begin reversing at 0 line or Extremes, price will then print higher hi's and higher lows. ie. If we are in a an uptrend noted by $TICK moving ave remaining above 0 line and price constantly bouncing off 0 line. Then bar turns at this area are great Signals, to Enter/Exit. Higher Hi and higher lows is confirmation to hold (This is a strong Trend drifter day, Notice Moving ave Remains above 0 line and price is bouncing off the 0 line indicating a very strong trend.) Also be aware of Trend Confirming Divergence, this is a excellent clue as well.
3LB The 3lb turns and prints the 2nd bar. This is momentum and very solid in a trending market. Not so much in ranges.

Vix Constantly Making New Intra Day Lows/Hi's, This combined with the $TICK and 3LB clues make for Tri factor of Indicator clues.