Tuesday, October 11, 2011

8pt Gap Down = Up trend til 7 bar

Yesterday's Power On Close = Weakness
Today's Open = Open @ 1183.25 GAP Dn (8.25 pts)
Result = Gap test till 7 bar then flag
Today's TREND = early up trend then Flag for day.
Today's 15 Minute Close Bar =UP @ 1191.50
Today's Power On Close = Strength
Daily Volume = 1.9M Volume
Today's $TICK close = 371
R1 1189-1190.(Globex) R2 1194 R3 1200 R4
S1 1184-1182.(Globex) S2 1180.50.S3 1176-1177 S4 1169

Daily Market Bias For Tomorrow  
0.214 Moderate Range

Daily's are showing some signs of Weakness. The ES closed Up today after an early rally then flag consolidation for the remainder of the day. The ES.D moved higher on low volume forming doji, a break above this are would make today a test in a rising market. We are at a cyclical  Resistance starting tomorrow on the ES and DJI. The Dow closed sightly lower on very light volume against Background weakness at 11,517 area. an early test of today's high on an upthrust could be the order of the morning. If so we could see longer term players stepping in to distribute.

The ES Volume Profile has printed a p pattern after testing on tight range. there was some long liquidation early but No buying to push prices higher. The 1189-1190 Vpoc will be the 1st test of weakness.

TRADE OF THE DAY:
The TOD was a 1S1K open Ice that setup against Heavy Support in the pre-open. Block Volume was heavy at the lows on the 13,500 and 4500 ticks. Long Entry's around the 1183.5 to 1184 around took minimal heat and were limited at Max target around 1188.50 prior to the 710 bar.





HOW I DID TODAY:
TRADE SELECTION - Great Open Ice Breaker
ENTRY'S - Great, No hesitation.
EXITS - Good exit, closed my 2nd position in the perfect place and time. My focus was on the weakness appearing at the highs and slowing price progress.
Self Talk/Mind Chatter: Good, No negativity. Good Observations.
Market Focus & Action: Good


WHAT I CAN DO BETTER:
WORK ON THE Entry's !- If i can get better Entry's I can avoid taking too much heat, although this is not a perfect art I feel I be a bit more tactful on when to enter. ie think lowest risk entry once the big picture is understood. I would rather enter a lower risk


SOLUTIONS:
Focus on Lowest Risk portion of the ANALYSIS - The reason for entry should have at least 4pts as an intangible target, so gauge the lowest risk and try to enter there. If it conflicts with confirmation then be cautious.


INTANGIBLE OBSERVATIONS:

Ask what are the Specialist is trying to get the public to do Prior to the Open - Today we had Block Volume on the 13,500 Tick and the 4500 tick Support levels. The Dow is being marked up on low volume over the past few days, so when it gaps down, this may indicate the intention for a higher close. When we can recognize the potential Campaign for the morning trust it until the 7zone.


The Daily Dow is a good indicator of intention for the next day. Spikes in High Volume show Reversal days and End of Trend Peak days very well.