Tuesday, October 25, 2011

4pt Gap Dn + High Volume in Glo & Pre Open pushing support

Yesterday's Power On Close = Weakness
Today's Open = Open @ 1243.00 GAP Up (4. pts)
Open to 7z Results = Ranging
Today's TREND = Descending triangle Down 
Today's 15 Minute Close Bar =UP (Profit Taking) @ 1225.20
Today's Power On Close = Strength
Daily Volume = 2.6M Avg Volume
Today's $TICK close = -400
R1 1230 R2 1235-36 R3 1238  R4 1245-48
S1 1222-1219(Globex) S2 1212  S3 1208   S4 1192

Daily Market Bias For Tomorrow  
-0.643 Moderate Bear

Daily's are showing some signs of Strength. 
Daily TREND = UP
  1. The ES closed Down below 1230 Support with divergence on Block Volume. 
  2. Closing just above the Trend line for Oct. 
  3. Daily The Down tick on high volume could suggest strength appearing and these levels. 
  4. The 15 Minute bar closed on 2 High volume Profit taking bars closing in the middle below New Resistance.
  5. Dow closed down on low volume breaking below previous days low of 11812. 
  6. Closing just above the Trend line for Oct at 11706 Forming a Head and shoulders type pattern on the 15 minute. A break below 11655 area would confirm a down bias Trend break.


The ES.D Profile printed a p-pattern day with price closing at the low end of value outside of balance just off the lows at 1224. We had long liquidation on the open finding The VPOC @ 1236. The ES shows the lower value area that was put in the RTH session @ 1235-36 Never testing the prior days Vpoc of 1245.

TRADE OF THE DAY:
The TOD was an Open Ice Breaker With a Block bar printing as the Open marker. 1S1K
  1. The sequence of information leading to the trade was. Mushroom Top leading into yestarday Close.
  2. Test into NEW Highs in the globex and subsequent selloff down thru PB Cycle Support and into prior days support. 
  3. Block Bar closing on the lows. Next Bar Breaking thru Block Lows.
Open Ice Entry @ 1239 would trade down to 1226 before stalling.

HOW I DID TODAY:
TRADE SELECTION - N/A Testing
ENTRY'S N/A Testing
EXITS - N/A Testing
Self Talk/Mind Chatter: N/A
Market Focus & Action: N/A


WHAT I CAN DO BETTER:
Be thorough with Ranked Criteria. The TOD was a rare trade that i passed on even though I like the odds. In staying discipline to my rules I pass due to uncertainty of all the criteria for entry. Particularly the Block volume instead of the probars at the mid. This will get worked out as i get used to the  new block settings.


Trade Selection and Judgment- Don't trade against Strength/Weakness, Determine this first then move on to trend and Qualifying Sequences.


SOLUTIONS:
Restate and List the Basic Rules - Print the Rank Criteria and hand write them out. Keep reminders of the basic rules and study them as well as the qualifying criteria for each entry. This is play book 101. Respect and Honer the Rules.


INTANGIBLE OBSERVATIONS:
Take Note of the Incoming Waves of Strength and Weakness that show up intraday. Usually the previous days close, Globex and Pre-Open will provide background S&W for the Open. BUT many times there may be a wave of S&W appearing at the Open, 7 zones or even midday during the dead Zone. Keep an eye out for current S&W.  If longer term Strength is supported  by current Strength, then we have odds on favor when a sequence sets up.


Using the $TICK to See turns in Price. - Don't forget about the $TICK when managing an entry. Price will often stall and print a doji or hammer before turning.


Exiting the Bad Trades -After entry price stays in the Red for most of the 1st five minutes. consider exiting to cut your losses.