Friday, October 28, 2011

8pt Gap Dn + Choppy Open at Support = Solid Ranges

Yesterday's Power On Close = Strength
Today's Open = Open @ 1275.00 GAP Up (8. pts)
Open to 7z Results = choppy open
Today's TREND =Range
Today's 15 Minute Close Bar =Dn @ 1283.25
Today's Power On Close = Strength
Daily Volume = 2.69M Avg Volume
Today's $TICK close = 483
R1 12 R2 1235-36 R3 1238  R4 1245-48
S1 1222-1219(Globex) S2 1212  S3 1208   S4 1192

Daily Market Bias For Tomorrow  


HeadLine: Stock Slump After Record Day

Daily's are showing some signs of Weakness. 
Daily TREND = UP
Prices Soar on Low Volume into the 1280's Resistance level. Dow +300 and above 12,000 on volume well below the average. Media Credit  given to Euro Deal to reduce Debt.
  1. The ES closed Up back above 1230 Support. 
  2. Broke above Resistance of 1250, 1275 
  3. Es and Dow Rally On Higher Volume
  4. The 15 Minute bar closed on a High volume Profit taking bars closing in the middle above New Resistance.
  5. Dow closed Up on increasing volume bounce off trend line. 
No surprise to see similar action as today with strength exhausting in the globex or pre-open to put in lows prior to reversing into trend.


The ES.D Profile printed 2 value areas closing at the HVL, This could suggest a test of the recent highs.



TRADE OF THE DAY:
The TOD was an Open Ice Fade The sequence of information leading to the trade was.
  1.  Strong Trend Day
  2.  Shakeout on High Volume at 15M Close.
  3. Globex Support and Shake out low Held into the Open. 
  4. Probars on Higher Times Frames Confirm Strength
Open Ice Fade Entry Long @ 1273.50 be test once before rallying to the morning high @ 1279.25
Tick View of the Ice Fade, Notice the prior days Close showed strength that was confirmed in the Aftermarket
4500 View
13,500 View of the Ice Ice fade. Waves of strength confirmed on prior days close and again in Globex and Pre-Open


HOW I DID TODAY:
TRADE SELECTION - N/A Testing
ENTRY'S N/A Testing
EXITS - N/A Testing
Self Talk/Mind Chatter: N/A
Market Focus & Action: N/A


WHAT I CAN DO BETTER:
Be thorough with Ranked Criteria. The TOD was a rare trade that i passed on even though I like the odds. In staying discipline to my rules I pass due to uncertainty of all the criteria for entry. Particularly the Block volume instead of the probars at the mid. This will get worked out as i get used to the  new block settings.


Trade Selection and Judgment- Don't trade against Strength/Weakness, Determine this first then move on to trend and Qualifying Sequences.


SOLUTIONS:
Restate and List the Basic Rules - Print the Rank Criteria and hand write them out. Keep reminders of the basic rules and study them as well as the qualifying criteria for each entry. This is play book 101. Respect and Honer the Rules.


INTANGIBLE OBSERVATIONS:
4500 & 1500 Broken Support New Resistance Test are great Liquid Fade's for dirty PB in resumption of Trend. see 2nd TOD

Connecting the Days Close and Globex action provide the morning sentiment.

Thursday, October 27, 2011

32pt Gap Up + Pre-Open Weakness = Ice Fade 1S1K

Yesterday's Power On Close = Strength
Today's Open = Open @ 1271.00 GAP Up (32. pts)
Open to 7z Results = Long Liquidation till 7bar  
Today's TREND = Opening Selling till 7bar
Today's 15 Minute Close Bar =Dn (Profit Taking) @ 1238.0
Today's Power On Close = Strength
Daily Volume = 2.69M Avg Volume
Today's $TICK close = 483
R1 12 R2 1235-36 R3 1238  R4 1245-48
S1 1222-1219(Globex) S2 1212  S3 1208   S4 1192

Daily Market Bias For Tomorrow  


HeadLine: Bullish on Euro Debt agreement

Daily's are showing some signs of Weakness. 
Daily TREND = UP
Prices Soar on Low Volume into the 1280's Resistance level. Dow +300 and above 12,000 on volume well below the average. Media Credit  given to Euro Deal to reduce Debt.
  1. The ES closed Up back above 1230 Support. 
  2. Broke above Resistance of 1250, 1275 
  3. Es and Dow Rally On Higher Volume
  4. The 15 Minute bar closed on a High volume Profit taking bars closing in the middle above New Resistance.
  5. Dow closed Up on increasing volume bounce off trend line. 
No surprise to see similar action as today with strength exhausting in the globex or pre-open to put in lows prior to reversing into trend.


The ES.D Profile printed 2 value areas closing at the HVL, This could suggest a test of the recent highs.



TRADE OF THE DAY:
The TOD was an Open Ice Fade 
  1. The sequence of information leading to the trade was. Mushroom Top leading into yestarday Close.
  2. Test into NEW Highs in the globex and subsequent selloff down thru PB Cycle Support and into prior days support. 
  3. Block Bar closing on the lows. Next Bar Breaking thru Block Lows.
Open Ice Entry @ 1272.25 would trade down to 1261 before stalling.
Tick View of the Ice Fade, Notice the prior days Close showed strength that played out in the after market moving to NEW highs peaking on the Actual Open.

13,500 View of the Ice Ice fade. Waves of strength and weakness must be viewed as continuos as we see here that the close Strength playout in the globex and Weakness was set in by the open.


2nd Trade of The Day. Broken Support New Resistance test.


HOW I DID TODAY:
TRADE SELECTION - N/A Testing
ENTRY'S N/A Testing
EXITS - N/A Testing
Self Talk/Mind Chatter: N/A
Market Focus & Action: N/A


WHAT I CAN DO BETTER:
Be thorough with Ranked Criteria. The TOD was a rare trade that i passed on even though I like the odds. In staying discipline to my rules I pass due to uncertainty of all the criteria for entry. Particularly the Block volume instead of the probars at the mid. This will get worked out as i get used to the  new block settings.


Trade Selection and Judgment- Don't trade against Strength/Weakness, Determine this first then move on to trend and Qualifying Sequences.


SOLUTIONS:
Restate and List the Basic Rules - Print the Rank Criteria and hand write them out. Keep reminders of the basic rules and study them as well as the qualifying criteria for each entry. This is play book 101. Respect and Honer the Rules.


INTANGIBLE OBSERVATIONS:
4500 & 1500 Broken Support New Resistance Test are great Liquid Fade's for dirty PB in resumption of Trend. see 2nd TOD


Inside bars in $TICK Trend confirm price break down.


$TICK Refusing to trade Below 0 Line confirms the Strong Uptrend.


Background Strength and Weakness is Consider on the Higher Times Frames ONLY!! -Use the 40,500 13,500 and 4500 tick to determine the Background S/W as well as Tops and Bottom Shapes (ie. Mushroom Tops/Saucer Bottoms) and S& R lines. 


Take Note of the Incoming Waves of Strength and Weakness that show up intraday. Usually the previous days close, Globex and Pre-Open will provide background S&W for the Open. BUT many times there may be a wave of S&W appearing at the Open, 7 zones or even midday during the dead Zone. Keep an eye out for current S&W.  If longer term Strength is supported  by current Strength, then we have odds on favor when a sequence sets up.