Wednesday, June 22, 2011

Steady Trending on No Gap Continuation before Feds..Then A Rush for the Doors on Mixed Fed Comments

Yesterday's TREND = Strong Up Trend
Yesterday's Power On Close = Strength
Today's Open = Open @ 1286. GAP DN (1.25.pt)
Result = Bull Trending Range Early
Today's TREND =  Strong Tight range Up Trned early then Reversal midday
Today's 15 Minute Close Bar =DN@ 1279.50
Today's Power On Close = Weakness
Daily Volume = 1.675M  Ultra High Volume
Today's $TICK close = 5

Daily Market Bias For Tomorrow 
-0.063 Strong Range

Daily's still trading inside the Bear channel after testing @ 1279 on the open, Rallying to 1291.50 then Closing Down at 1279.50. This on the Mixed fed Comments regarding Inflation and Unemployment. If Price stalls overnight, i will consider this strength and continue looking for a rally to test the up channel. A bounce off the 1275-1276 Gap zone could be a clue. Conversly we could see more selling if price breaks down in Globex below the Channel with Blocks stepping in. Im expecting some consolidation as Market Bias is Signal Strong Range for the 2nd day in a row.



TRADE OF THE DAY:
There were 2 TOD today were the opportunities seemed a bit limited this morning. The 1st came on a Open Ice Breaker that broke above the Open BLOCK Bar with conviction @ 1287.25, this was the result of strength at yestardays close as well as a PB in Trend on the 13,500 coupled with a pre open BLOCK bar that that was a wide spread down into the PB Cycle but closed off it lows above the PB cycle. Price ran steadily into the 1291.50 area for a max 4pt move.
(Open ICE Breaker on 13,500)
The 2nd TOD was a return to the 1287 area on a high volume down bar cracking the 1/2 line on the 4500 tick, This 1/2 line test synced with a PB in trend Cycle with Exhuastion, (No Probars here) bottoming at the lower 30 Minute POC.  On the 500 tick,The cycles was overshot But Probars showed up in a clusters that provided a sold rally to the  1293.75 level.


WHAT I COULD HAVE DONE BETTER:
Scratch a trade that move against my position immediately

SOLUTION:
watch for signs of rejections and be ready scratch.

INTANGIBLE OBSERVATION:
Be aware of price return to quality entry points, even if i miss the entry take note of that level and when price returns, watch for a weak reaction or Rejection. Today Price bounced off the 2 TOD entrys before rallying to and above 1st targets.


Price Rejection usually taps an area very quickly then bounces, it spend little time at that price, If it is to be broken it must do so over time, so think fading areas were price tends to reject.


Also ask what is the public thinking right here and now??