Friday, June 3, 2011

17pt Gap Down = Strong Tight Range Trend. Friday FOCUS Breakthru

Yesterday's TREND = Reversal Day
Yesterday's Power On Close = Weakness
Today's Open = Open @ 1295.75 GAP Up (17pt)
Result = Tight Rang Drifter
Today's TREND = Early Up Trend
Today's 15 Minute Close Bar =DN@ 1295.75
Today's Power On Close = Weakness
Daily Volume = 2.66M Volume
Today's $TICK close =  -264

Daily Market Bias For Tomorrow 
-1.643 Strong Bear

Today was a Gap down of 17 pts, and price Reversed from the Globex lows from the open.
Dailys are clearly in a down trend. It appears that yestardays Hangman, has Broken and next week we can expect more  downside pressure as the slide continues potentially to the 1250 area.





TRADE OF THE DAY
Today we got a 17 pt gap down which usually indicates the potential for a tight range drifter day. The market bias signaled Strong range for today as well. The TOD was an Ice Break on the @ 1297.50 away from the 13,500 EOT which formed in the Globex session, the buy and hold till 7 zone was the play for a 1 shot 1 kill opportunity. 
13,500 Ice Breaker and Uptrend till midday

There were multiple re-entry points off the 500 tick cycle that provided further opportunities with few fluctuations against the tight uptrend of the morning session.

WHAT I COULD HAVE DONE BETTER
was hold my original entry for the 1 shot 1 kill. There was a ISM News Release at 7:00 that pushed price further up. I exited prior to the release to avoid whipsaw.

I could have taken small profits when they showed signs of reversing and slowing. I have to listen the Market.

I did well with reversing and exiting early but I need more reps here, this will be my main focus going forward.

SOLUTIONS
What i learned was that news will confirm the current trend in many cases, so when the trend is very strong we can expect any whipsaw to revert back to the trend direction. Especially prior to 7 zones.

I must Focus on EACH and EVERY bar to catch Exit signals and reversal opportunities.

INTANGIBLE OBSERVATIONS:
Pay attention to my nerves and emotions. Allow then to guide your decision making, understanding that your gut is usually what armatures are thinking. But nerves will get you closer to the PULSE of the market and help with Scratching  losses and Reversing. (During my best trades my nerves were active and I could feel what to do, The next things is to ACT upon this feeling (how many times have we said "I knew that was going to Breakout" but failed to ACT on the information the market was giving?

HOW /WHAT to Focus on: Focus on EVERY bar will help with decision making. Whether in or out of the market My Focus should be on every bar till the 7 zone. At which point we can rest and relax.

**4500 BB seem to be very useful Trend Guides. And Reactions around the 1/2 line can reveal EXIT and REVERSAL Cue's as well as (Bounces, Breaks, & Test). This is primary a visual reminder of trend. 
Used in the higher Time frames can help clears up noise and direct focus.
4500 with Bollinger Bands for Trend Guides
.