Yesterday's TREND = Down trend to 7bar then Strong Up trend to close
Yesterday's Power On Close = Weakness
Today's Open = Open @ 1280.00 GAP Up (50.pt)
Result = PreviousDay/Globes/Pre-open Continuation
Today's TREND = Down till 7bar Reversal
Today's 15 Minute Close Bar =DN@ 1277.50
Today's Power On Close = Strength
Daily Volume = 3.31M Ultra High Volume
Today's $TICK close = 37
Daily Market Bias For Tomorrow =
0.214 Moderate Range
Daily's show the Globex Break down on friday, Im expecting a test of Thursdays low, a break below the 1265 level and we may see a run to 1250 quickly, However we have 40500 support cycle and a bounce at the 1265 level may be the play for rally next week.
TRADE OF THE DAY:
The trade of the day came after an open ice breaker that began is down trend in the Globex and Pre-open with Blocks at the peaks and probars test the BB 1/2 line. The TOD best entry was a price rejection of the orignal Open Ice Breaker entry @1277.75. The 2nd return to this price was on a 5/15 sync with PB on the 1500 tick, and a 1/2 line test. A short here provided a 6pt move at the 1st peak low @ 1272.25, However another retest and subsequent price rejection @ 1274.74-1275.25 area (the previous Low that coincided with the 30 POC and 4500 Probar) provided the 2nd TOD as price didnt put in low until 1265. The best Exit would have been on 1500 tick exhaustion after wide spread down bar and multiple probars @ 1268.00 good for 7-10 pts.
From here price sold off 6points.
WHAT I COULD HAVE DONE BETTER:
Been a bit more observent when price retested and was rejected at the original Open Ice entry. Im getting more confident in this pattern as i continue to see it play out.
On the Flag break down I should have taken profit after it move 2pts in my favor, it did bounce quickly BUT on break outs price tends to move around 1-2 points (depending on the length of time spent in consolidation prior to breaking out) Then correct by bouncing to or just above the opposite extreme. BE AWARE OF THIS when taking OPEN ICE BREAKERS AND FLAGS.
Also could have been more patient on my 2nd trade - I entered short after a wide spread probar close down with exhaustion, my entry was above a 3rd exhaustion signal, a FLAG break down, however i was able to read the signs indicating a revisite to those lows which it did, but I sat thru 2pts of heat for my error.
INTANGIBLE OBSERVATIONS:
Open good entris price will often be Rejected if it returns to that pric, This happend today as price broke down from the Open Ice bar, and then corrected back to the low of tat bar before selling off hard
When taking Breakouts of FLAGs and Open Ice Expect 2 pts on the break before price bounces to retest, at this retest look for Rejection around the entry, then a larger move in the trend direction. (another example of Re-entering at the price and Price Rejection)
Be very patient on Reversals and trades against daily trend.
MAKE THE MARKET PROOVE ITSELF - Preferrably we want to see multiple signs of Accumulation/Distribution.
The signs should be :
#1 Price peaks at 7-8:30 bar Hi/Lo (Only take after 7&9bar zones )
#2 4500 Probars, at Hi/Lo - Volume must show its hand at extremems. Preferrable before the bottom and at the botton.
# 3 Exhaustion and/or Flush Signals on 1500 tick and/or 5 minute (multiples, usually 2-3)
#4 Divergence in the directing of intended move
#5 Price Break above 4500 1/2 line BB. usually on high volume then a test of the line
#6 5 minute test of rising market - This is usually the last sign prior to the train leaving the station, when we get a break above this test bar price may consolidate or trend slightly prior to being marked up on high or low volume.
(The UP arrows point out test of higher low as price trend up)
