Thursday, June 30, 2011

Thurs 2.25 Gap Up = Early Trend Continuation from Prior Days close

Yesterday's Power On Close = Weakness
Today's Open = Open @ 1297.50 GAP Up (2.25 pt)
Result = Early Rally into Up Trend 
Today's TREND = UP Trend past 7 bar
Today's 15 Minute Close Bar =Down @ 1314.75
Today's Power On Close = Strength
Daily Volume = 1.86M high Volume
Today's $TICK close = 263

Daily Market Bias For Tomorrow 
-0.071 STRONG RANGE

Daily's broke out early and rallied to our daily target of 1317. This is a critical number as a break above the channel would be the 1st, confirming an up trend for the near term. We still have Not rolled over from the Daily cycle Resistance so correction must be in play for a healthy rally to sustain longer term. I would normally expect some selling tommarrow, due to the 4th of july weekend and friday bullishness and we are above Daily Support of 1310. If we dont get a hard sell overnight longs may be the play.



TRADE OF THE DAY:
TOD was a 1 Shot 1 Kill early on a 1500/500 sync. with PT Block Bar at BB 1/2 Line. The Best entry was @ 1306.50 -1307.50 Price appear to fake to the downside as a continuation from the pre-open, However we had Probars at the 1500 low and low volume then professional step in off support on the 500 tick for confiramtion. A very strong rally ensude to 1311.75 where 1500 Exhuastion and probars appeared, however price peaked at 1313.75 on this rally.

WHAT I COULD HAVE DONE BETTER:
Be a bit more patient when things are setting up, often times i have to sit thru immediate heat of 1-2 pts even though the analysis is correct.

SOLUTION: 
Take ACTION when see chances, the market will give multiple chances and clues to get on board.

INTANGIBLE OBSERVATIONS:
Be aware to enter and Exit around Open and Closes of 30 Profiles and 15minute bars.

Wednesday, June 29, 2011

Weds Whipsaw..3pt gap Early Reversal into Up Trend

Yesterday's Power On Close = Strength
Today's Open = Open @ 1297.50 GAP Up (3.25 pt)
Result = Early Reversal into Up Trend 
Today's TREND = UP Trend past 7 bar
Today's 15 Minute Close Bar =UP@ 1304.50
Today's Power On Close = Weakness
Daily Volume = 2.48M high Volume
Today's $TICK close = -196

Daily Market Bias For Tomorrow 
-0.071 STRONG RANGE

Daily's broke out the accumulation and after being marked up on light volume yestarday, gained on healthy volume closing at the top of the range. We are yet to see a cycle turn on the @ES.D and Continuous so im still expecting some sort of dip/retest of supply after maybe touching the 1310 level, however if price breaks thru this area on high volume we could see a run to 1318 the Top of the Down Trend channel confirming a short term up trend at least. The 135 and 40500 have already broke into the uptrend. But todays narrow range has me skeptical.


TRADE OF THE DAY:
The trade of the day came after Heavy volume with little movement around 1295-1297 area, there was alote of whipsaw and conflicting signals. However the very Skilled could have recognized that after multiple probars price stalled with a rambo on the 4500 BB low and 1500 tick Cycle support at 1293. There was No Cycle on the 500, and an overshoot on the 4500 making this trade somewhat elusive. The Dip down in the 1293 area was to catch stops prior to moving to the inevitable target of 1304ish. The Day Type with a 3 pt Gap was a signal of an early reversal into trend. An Entry at or aound the 1296.25 and 1297 were the most accurate, A hold till 7bar provided a 5 pts move on ultra high volume.


WHAT I COULD HAVE DONE BETTER:
Been Quicker to recognized the range- After the News Release there was alote of Volume But No real movement, i should have seen this and exited for a small profit (Platform Froze) Stops were being taking out at the lows.

Close out the position when the Platform Froze up.

Took action when i Recognized a test in a rising market, I held short after reversing and missed a max target opportunity. This was a 3pt Day type confirming a early reversal into trend!!


SOLUTION: 
If the plateform freezes or i experience any technical difficulty, Close out ALL positions asap especially if profitable. 


Take ACTION when see chances, the market will give multiple chances and clues to get on board.

INTANGIBLE OBSERVATIONS:
When we Get the Day Type that matches our bias look for strength/ weakness on the Globex, THEN ACT ON WHAT IS BEING CONVEYED!!!
3pt Early reversal will often peak at 7 bars