Wednesday, June 12, 2013

+9pt Gap + Early Distribution = Hard Selling all da

Today we a 9pt gap Up putting in a high at 1638 on the open never to return their again on the day. We did have early selling clues with 4500 Pro bar closing high but the next bar closing down. We then printed a pro bar on the 15 minute and a block bar on the 45 that turned out to be falling through the ice. Their are signs that we could be entering a down trend or specialist distribution with gap up opens and down closings. However I'm still reluctant to underestimate the daily strength especially with a probar printing a few days ago.
Recap Notes:

Trade Review - Below Average Trading, ? Sequences
[-AVG]Seq Selection    [OK]Entries   [-AVG]Exits    [-AVG]Exposure   [OK]Psyche
Sequence 1 - Took a 15 cycle with block bars on the low, but this turned out to be falling through the ice and i was taken out.
Sequence 2 - Took a 45 single cycle with block bars on the low, This turned out to be a small gain.
Sequence 3 - Took a 45/5 cycle with block bars in the back, but this trade quickly moved against the position so bailed with a small loss but on max lots.
Sequence 3A - Took a 45/5 cycle with block bars in the background, price move in favor about a point before stalling and i would up bailing with a small gain.

The Theme was too many probes and Trend Bucking, Not too mad at the selection but they were all taken with the $TICK trending BELOW the 0 Line.

ADJUSTMENTS & OBSERVATIONS:

Prep rep the night before and Globex Data on the open is a must - Today i had No Data on the open and was somewhat blind, however their were clues that pointed short, ie. the $TICK printed Exhaustion on the opening 1 minute bars in the overbought rang of +800

When we have NO News days be patient on the open - This is especially important when their is NO NEWS. Its best to wait for Extremes to happen then wait for Block bars or Pro bars to setup.