Wednesday, June 5, 2013

-6pt gap into Support +Pros = Rally test to gap zone&VPOC @1629 early

Today we had a -6pt Gap into high time frame support, we printed pro bars on the 5 minute coiling for a break up BUT with Exhaustion signals at the highs, the early bounce off support moved 5pts to test the 1628 area by the 1st Ti marking the high and closing on the low below support on the same 1st TI 15M bar signaling a fall through the ice. From here we moved lower testing the 1618 are. It appears that this could be the early stages of a down trend in the markets. But with the recent weekly strength I'm cautious.
Recap Notes:
Trade Selection -  Good Trading, Good Entries, Good Exits.
Sequence 1 1S1K - Today we had a clear test of 15m, 135 & 40500 tick support. No block bars and very few relevant Volume signals today. My entry was based on a pro bar break on the 4500 tick.
I caught the bounce off this area which kept getting rejected on test of the 1623 area. I was able to get on board for a solid move, exiting into the rally. Done for the day early.

ADJUSTMENTS & OBSERVATIONS:

Study the Price Action - Particularly on test back to areas of Strength or Weakness, continued rejection(price is marked to an area and quickly bounces up 2 or more ticks) watch the volume to see if it happens on low volume or high, this will determine the likely break down or rally. Often rejection is the price action version of NoS or NoD


Limit your Exposure - Limiting Exposure preserves profits and takes the excessiveness away, i may miss a few entries, leave money on the table and exit a bit early but over time this has been the bases of consistent gains for me.

Work on correcting the following - 
  1. Taking the highest probability sequences, stick to what you know. 
  2. Trust your block bars when they appear.
  3. Give the sequence time to play out, if its clean in your favor 15 bars are a good timing point. 
  4. NEVER TRADE AGAINST 15minute Block Bars. 
  5. Protect your profits, Don't go entering *UQ* sequences.
  6. If the day starts off rough, be patient and think about stalling at a reasonable gain or loss. Don't try to push it when things are going bad. Get lighter on losing streaks and bigger on win streaks.
  7. Keep the size down for now until i can get my win % back up my normal range.
Managing the Day - I have been violating a simple understanding - More Than 3-4 Sequences Per Day is Too Much!! Stay within the 90 Grind and call it unless their is an obvious breakout.