Friday, June 21, 2013

+8.25pt gap into Resistance = heavy selling pressure

We printed Block bars on the pre-open highs on the 45 and the 5minute with Exhuastion. This was the clue that would determine the direction for the day. Heavy Selling pressure past 1st and 2nd Time intervals. The daily support has been violated and remains below 1599-1588 Old Gap Zone. It appears that the down trend is in full effect at least for the short term.
Recap Notes:

Trade Review : Poor Execution & Money Management

[POOR]Seq Selection    [POOR]Entries   [POOR]Exits    [OL SEQ's]Exposure   [POOR]Psyche
Took a Hard hit to start the day, Over Leveraged against the TREND. I missed a Block Bar sitting at the high of the 5 Minute with Exhuastion as well as another Block Bar in the Pre-open that printed an EOT  at the 4500 tick high.. How did I trade against these? Need more evaluation on the open to establish and confirm my premise. This haunted me all morning.. Need to sit out then go back the premis calculator for Nightly routine.

ADJUSTMENTS & OBSERVATIONS:
Take More time on the open to confirm Premise - Today i missed some obvious clues that i would normally catch, i think im struggling against the down trend that we have been in so i need to readjust my daily assessment to get in line with the larger direction. Premis calculator.

Get back to trading off higher Time Frams - 15, 13500 and Med Terms allow time to move in favor.

Liquid Reversal Notes - Low number -100 with block or pro bar print on any Time frame, $TICK Over Bought/Oversold is a high probability entry.

SKIP Trading on Late FOMC days - Its simply not worth it and you cant trust the action. 

Keeping size down due to G8 Meeting and choppy opens. Simply not willing to sit through it today.

Thursday, June 20, 2013

16pt Gap Down =+ Absorption Block Bar on the 15M = Break into Daily Gap Low of 1599

16pt Gap Down =+ Bearish Absorption Block Bar on the 15M = Break into Daily Gap Low of 1599. Price bounce @ 1594.00 after the 2nd Ti but appears that we will close on the lows.
Recap Notes:

Trade Review : Solid Sequences/Poor Money Management

[GOOD]Seq Selection    [GOOD]Entries   [GOOD]Exits    [OK@4SEQ's]Exposure   [GOOD]Psyche
Sequence 1 - 4: Price action was very erratic early. Took me a while to catch up after taking some early hits, but i was able to recover a good portion of the damage and settle with down day. Many Probes that ran in favor so I was light on the best sequences. 

ADJUSTMENTS & OBSERVATIONS:

Get back to trading off higher Time Frams - 15, 13500 and Med Terms allow time to move in favor

Liquid Reversal Notes - Low number -100 with block or pro bar print on any Time frame, $TICK Over Bought/Oversold is a high probability entry.

SKIP Trading on Late FOMC days - Its simply not worth it and you cant trust the action. 

Keeping size down due to G8 Meeting and choppy opens. Simply not willing to sit through it today.

Wednesday, June 19, 2013

11:00 FOMC News Release = Tight Ranges, Choppy Prices Action and False moves

11:00 FOMC News Release = Tight Ranges, Choppy Prices Action and False moves
Recap Notes:

Trade Review : Poor

[WEAK]Seq Selection    [OK]Entries   [GOOD]Exits    [OK@4 SEQ's]Exposure   [OK]Psyche
Sequence 1 - 4: NOT a good day to participate in the markets due to Late FOMC release. I was fully aware of this and skipped my preprep routine for this reason but still got up to put on some trades. the sequences were ok but in this environment you can only expect choppy ranges and false breaks. So i wound up probing excessively and taking trades that didnt move. Got nicked in the process.

ADJUSTMENTS & OBSERVATIONS:
SKIP Trading on Late FOMC days - Its simply not worth it and you cant trust the action. 

Keeping size down due to G8 Meeting and choppy opens. Simply not willing to sit through it today.

Tuesday, June 18, 2013

-1pt Gap Open + 5:30 News With No reaction + G8 Meetings All day =Chop Range till late breakout

We had  -1pt Continuation Light Open off 5:30 News. With G8 meetings all day it appear that we may chop around in a tight range.
Recap Notes:

Trade Review : Good-Solid

[GOOD]Seq Selection    [GOOD]Entries   [GOOD]Exits    [IDEAL]Exposure   [GOOD]Psyche
Sequence 1 - Today we opened light volume but the campaign appeared strong to the upside as we remained above 1634 early. This was my cue to take longs. So i was able to ink a small gain out early on a 15 single cycle.

Sequence 2 - Same Trade as the original just a reentry at higher prices, Good entry. I wasnt able to get much on as price moved away quickly but no regrets. Better light form now. .

Sequence 3 - This was 45/15 cycle that was failing, i bailed at a good time and avoided a steep pullback and extra exposure.

ADJUSTMENTS & OBSERVATIONS:
Keeping size down due to G8 Meeting and choppy opens. Simply not willing to sit through it today.

Friday, June 14, 2013

-1.5 point Continustion gap + pro absorptions bar on 15m = Gap break rally to 1st TI

Today we a -1.5pt Continuation Gap with the opening bar printing a hammer type professional absorption bar after breaking the high we rallied to test the 1635 peak price of the 1st TI before being met with rejection. price then sold off to test the lows around 1628 where we had an early flag holding from the Globex session. It appears that we may be resuming the uptrend on the daily but caution is advised.
Recap Notes:

Trade Review : Good-Solid

[GOOD]Seq Selection    [GOOD]Entries   [OK]Exits    [GOOD]Exposure   [GOOD]Psyche
Sequence 1 - Today we opened in a triangle flag pattern from the globex session with block bars leading up to the flag. I entered on a C(500 cycle Nt on the break of some 5 probars. This entry was a bit early and i had to sit throught some heat eventually closing at a small loss. I actually should have held here because price never broke down below the probar that printed on the 15t. No Regrets though.

Sequence 2 - Same Trade as the original just a reentry at higher prices, Good entry. I was able to exit 1 off at 3pt target but failed to close the 2nd and 3rd lot and wound up out with a tick after having multiple chances to close at 3+. Poor Exits on this trade.

Sequence 3 - This was also a followup from the same premise, my entry was again a bit pricey but we had price action momentum. I was able to get on and give it a chance maxing out on the position.

ADJUSTMENTS & OBSERVATIONS:
Liquid Reversal clues - 
Volume profile bars(Matrix) prints below 400# after printing larger Vol.
** Notice the 47 contract traded on the very LOW after 2235 traded the price before!
$TICK has moved to or below -800
These are good indication that price is subject to reverse. Look for price to hold with professionals or block bars printing on any time frame after this bounce for confirmation to enter.

Look for TICK Divergence and stay with it - 
The Divergence has the following attribute:
  1. $TICK price bars are above/ below the 0 Line
  2. $TICK Trend Line is above/ below the 0 Line
  3. Actual Price is above/below VPOCs both 30 & Daily
  4. Price is trading above/ below Midline on the 4500 tick
When these signs are present the probability is increased. When Blox or pro bar breaks are located at support or resistance then this is a max on opportunity. 
** NOTE For Longs ALL the criteria should be ABOVE & For shorts ALL the criteria should be BELOW**

Taking Profit/Leaving Money on the Table - Today i left alote of money on table but in a bad way. I failed to close on my 2nd lots looking to get more out of them and wound up closing with ticks instead of points, 6pts to be exact... This is totally unacceptable and must be corrected. Do Maat work for greed and acceptance. Appreciate whats given and move on, be sure that money left on the table holds NO regrets. 

Prep rep the night before and Globex Data on the open is a must - Today i had No Data on the open and was somewhat blind, however their were clues that pointed short, ie. the $TICK printed Exhaustion on the opening 1 minute bars in the overbought rang of +800

When we have NO News days be patient on the open - This is especially important when their is NO NEWS. Its best to wait for Extremes to happen then wait for Block bars or Pro bars to setup.