Today we had a 6.5 gap up into 15 minute weakness where we printed a PB in trend on the 15M. We Opened Overbought with a pro bar Doji that signal lower prices. The confusion was that we had Block Bars in the background and more appearing at the 4500 and 13500 Lows.
Recap Notes:
Trade Selection - Poor Trading, OK initial Entries, VERY POOR EXITS.
Sequence 1- was Based on a 45& 13500 Cycle with Block on the lows in the pre Open and Globex sessions. I entered on a 15 single cycle and got a solid move but took a poor exit for minimal profit. I wound up reentering in the same direction for excessive small loses. I also added too much in the same place so i was overweight in one spot.. BIG mistakes when no confirmation of price is happing.
Sequence 2 - 45 Single Cycle with Block bars on the Lows of the 45 and 13500. The premise here was ok but price never really moved and waited too long taking major unnecessary heat!!! When i did get a solid rally of say 1.75pts with MAX on i FAILED to close out allowing price t move back away and taking a loss on max. This is very uncommon mistake that must not happen!! Very Disappointed with my trading today. Always take whats given on Fridays.
Overall my premise was spot but I was too committed too it to early, the strength that appeared may not play out to the end of the day. NEVER MARRY A POSITION!! The best thing would be to take the small profit and enjoy the day. I wound up scalping back to small loss on the day as the premise played we rally another 6pts from my original entry but not before a 3pt spike.
INTANGIBLE OBSERVATIONS:
Always check the News - Today trading outside my morning prep routine i made a crucial error in judgment by placing a trade at the 1st Ti and getting caught in the whipsaw. During whipsaw moments it is often tough to execute in and out of positions thus it wise to avoid entering just prior to the 7:00am. This is a byproduct of missing the morning routine.
Don't trade when I miss the morning routine - Today i missed the morning routine due to rough night of sleep, my intuition usually says to take the day off. However i traded today and was clearly not as aware or focused as usual. Quick cuts and Probes was my saving grace under very difficult circumstances. Major Technical problems all day.
Late day News & Unpredictability - Today we have 11:00 FOMC news which often send the market into a chop and slop till that time. Today was no different. The best way to trade this environment is to take small profit when given and be cautious using probes to determine direction potential exiting at ANY signs of rejection counter minding the premise. However it pays to trade away from HT Blocks.
Spotting the Campaign and reacting - Today we had good reason to be short on the open with many signs of weakness n the background. However The campaign was evident as we saw prices marked up through resistance and minimal volume growth on it way up.
Clear signs are:
- Signal are being ignored
- Price moves in a direction in a tight range
- Price is marked up past areas with little to No growth on the Vol Bars
When this is spotted we should immediately revers our position and give it a chance to at least the 1st but usually to the 2nd.