Thursday, February 21, 2013

-1.50 gap + 45tick PB NT = Further Declines into the 1st Ti

Today we had a -1.50 gap with block printing on the 1500 tick globex lows but was quickly countermanded by another block bar in the globex session that stalled price but was later broken in the uptren leading into the pre-open. However we printed a PB in trend on the 4500 tick suggesting more lower prices. Price broke down further based on the PD's momentum to the 1st Ti, where we saw a 7pt bounce continuing into the 2nd Ti. 
Recap Notes:

Trade Selection -  Ok Trading,  OK initial Entries,  Good Cuts & Exits. 
Sequence 1-3 was riddled with probes and quick cuts due to technical Difficulties with my CPU. However under the circumstances I was able to cut out quickly for very small loses until i could get my bearings. Typically i would avoid multiple positions but I struggled reading the open direction (poor sleep and missed pre prep). The probing mentality and quick cuts was my saving grace on rough day, through the drama I still managed to scratch on average.

Sequence 4- was a liquid scalp that printed block bars on the 1500 and 500 tick lows after athe early decline. This was a good entry but i didnt stay with it long enough due to tmy lack of conviction at the moment so i took a solid gain looking to reenter if the opportunity presented.

Sequence 5- was a 15/5 Reentry of the previous liquid scalp but this time with a block bar showing up on the 13500 in the same tick lows. I was able to exit most into the rally allowing for a solid close on the final lot. Solid Trade no regrets.

INTANGIBLE OBSERVATIONS:
Always check the News - Today trading outside my morning prep routine i made a crucial error in judgment by placing a trade at the 1st Ti and getting caught in the whipsaw. During whipsaw moments it is often tough to execute in and out of positions thus it wise to avoid entering just prior to the 7:00am. This is a byproduct of missing the morning routine.

Don't trade when I miss the morning routine - Today i missed the morning routine due to rough night of sleep, my intuition usually says to take the day off. However i traded today and was clearly not as aware or focused as usual. Quick cuts and Probes was my saving grace under very difficult circumstances. Major Technical problems all day.

Late day News & Unpredictability - Today we have 11:00 FOMC news which often send the market into a chop and slop till that time. Today was no different. The best way to trade this environment is to take small profit when given and be cautious using probes to determine direction potential exiting at ANY signs of rejection counter minding the premise. However it pays to trade away from HT Blocks.

Spotting the Campaign and reacting - Today we had good reason to be short on the open with many signs of weakness n the background. However The campaign was evident as we saw prices marked up through resistance and minimal volume growth on it way up. 
Clear signs are: 
  • Signal are being ignored
  • Price moves in a direction in a tight range
  • Price is marked up past areas with little to No growth on the Vol Bars
When this is spotted we should immediately revers our position and give it a chance to at least the 1st but usually to the 2nd.