Today we had a4.5pt gap down on HT weakness. We then printed a 15 minute absorption bar on the 1511 low and began a TRD rally till the 2nd Time Interval. The campaign was evident throughout the rally as we saw prices marked up through resistance and minimal volume growth on it way up.
Recap Notes:
Trade Selection - Good trading, Good initial Entries, Ok Exits.
Sequence 1 was a solid entry off a 15/5 cycle sync that began on the very open and printed a sing block bar on the 500tick. The momentum was short in the pre-open so there was no reason to believe that this was out of trend. The trade moved in favor by 1.25 pts but i failed to exit as we broke the probars that printed on the 1500tick. Price then reversed and i exited with a consistent loss with max on. No regrets, this trade just didn't work due to the long campaign which I was happy to a have recognized, many times it s hard to spot until its in action so the best we could do is react by reversing.
Sequence 2 was a 45 single cycle after campaign strength and block bar breaks to the long side. This was an Excellent trade ass i was able to react to the campaign and get in alignment as soon as possible. There was signs of TRD potential so I gave the trade a chance while it was marked up with very little participation.
INTANGIBLE OBSERVATIONS:
Spotting the Campaign and reacting- Today we had good reason to be short on the open with many signs of weakness n the background. However The campaign was evident as we saw prices marked up through resistance and minimal volume growth on it way up.
Clear signs are:
- Signal are being ignored
- Price moves in a direction in a tight range
- Price is marked up past areas with little to No growth on the Vol Bars
When this is spotted we should immediately revers our position and give it a chance to at least the 1st but usually to the 2nd.
The IMPORTANCE OF PROBING - As learned from Don Miller, you can best feel the current by swimming in the water.
Using probes to get a feel for the action is a great way to take the edge off and manage risk when uncertain. Today i put on several probes before committing to the main position, it was a total of 5 lots over 3 probes that only amounted to a .75tick cost of doing business, well worth the benefits resulting from the committed trade. Had price moved far away from my position i would have limited my exposure and taken but a small loss while having time to reconsider my Premise.
Taking what is given - Today was a good example of taking what the market gives and being satisfied with it. I took an open ice that was momentum based from the globex highs. This trade had solid signs of LONGER TERM WEAKNESS.
However we open with only a 1pt continuation gap - signalling a high chance of trading in a range. The rang was only 4pts on the prior day and we had only moved 3pts before bouncing prior to the 1st Ti. Now I must ask myself, am i willing to wait for the move to breakdown? which may happen later in the day of not at all today. Or limit my exposure, take what is given and enjoy the rest of my day? NO regrets for choosing the later.