Tuesday, March 8, 2011

Gap Seal-> Uptrend-> Flag-> Breakout

Today was an ok to for me trading. We had a Sealed gap which traded below the gap range on the open and bounced into an uptrend for the day, we saw price go flat into a FLAG consolidation pattern midday before breaking out to the upside to test the 1325 level.

On the Daily we see price bounced off the long term trend line to close up at 1320. A break out this cluster area between 1327 - 1330 could lead to another leg up for the S&P Eminis. Looking at the Daily chart we are beginning to see cycle Support being printed on Better Sine along with  an Exhaustion Selling signal which could confirm a move to the upside in the coming days.


What Did I do Well?
My Forcast for the day was spot on using my New After market Pre prep routine. 
I was able to spot the likely bounce and trend direction for the day. 
Had great entries and was able to switch my bias once the trend seemed to change.
I recognized the FLAG consolidation and break to the upside.

What Did I do Poorly? 
I missed the best move of the day, which was a price over shoot on 1500 & 400 tick with NO pro bars signals(there was Bullish Exhaustion on the open and hidden at the base of the reversal) 


But the 500 Tick looked great. I just hesitated because i didnt see the confluence till too late.


Exited waay too early on 2 trades, and actually had a winner become a small loser, but was able to put it behind me and move on.
 
How will this affect my Account? 
Missing the big move - This will happen from time to time and can possibly lead to over trading and forced positions if not careful.
Exiting too early - Limits my profits, when this happens consistently it does effect my risk reward ratio. 


Solutions: 
Missing the big move - I will adjust the Signal to show on Paint Bars and get more focused on movements in the morning ( 1st hour )
Forcast the entry and stay with the trade!! And may have to adjust my limits to 2 points.
Must Allow analysis to play out!!



Intangible Jewels: 
  • Dont wait for cycles. Enter on the anticipation of Better Sine once all else is in place.
  • Block Trade Indicator shows clues above 15-17 on the 500 tick chart, **Needs more study**
  • More on Micro Trend Movement - They seems to spot Flags and consolidation very well, when we see this look for Breakout in trend direction. *see chart below*
  • The cycle tends to tighten as the trend begins to slowly change.
2 minute chart shows tightening cycles prior to selloff @ 12:30 and 15:00
Micro Trend Consolidation and Breakout 1500.
Micro trend FLAG Consolidation Breakout on 500 Tick.










--->  Gap Seals, Test and Breaks point the way for Daily Forcast. see *Analysing Gaps*
--->  The 4 Quarters of  Intra-Day movement - usually 2 main trend moves in a day but 4  possible types of setups to look for. Trend, Range, Consolidation and Runner Range Trend(No pull backs and not many opportunities)
--->  If the Calender has NO news be aware that the day can die out early!! This is a great time to STOP!! If you get caught trading in a dead environment it can be very costly