Friday, March 11, 2011

Japan's Tsunami on a slow Friday

Well today was very exciting for me, I didnt get much sleep last night playing with a few indicators that seem to fit into my trading methodology that is based on finding the Wholesale / Retail prices for the day then siding with the path of least resistance. This morning we had a small gap down in the ES with an immediate bounce on bullish Exhaustion and test of the gap area and 15 minute cycle support, after a some mid morning consolidation price slowly trended up in a tight range most the day then rallied late in the afternoon. The environment was pretty slow but signals were very clear and we got some confluence on multiple frames. The tsunami in Japan may have effected the Friday volatility but Specialist seem to try to lull one to sleep prior to breaking out when setups are obvious.



What Did I do Well? 
Spot opportunities and did not hesitate to enter.
I was particularly pleased that i was able to spot a MICRO TREND break out for a few  points.
Also i was able to get into a rhythm with $TICK and spot divergence and extremes

What Did I do Poorly? 
needed to be more patient with my entries, many times i entered and took heat before price ran in my favor, however a was able to stick with positions and take good profits.

How will this affect my Account? 
Early entries can lead to excess heat and many times being stopped out.

Solutions: 
Patients.... wait to see the 3 signs of weakness or Strength then get confirmation on entry. ask your self is this train leaving for good? many times you will get multiple opportunities to enter but don't count it.

Intangible Jewels
  • 1 minute $TICK Chart with better indicators applied shows clear divergence and oversold overbought levels across the indexes. This allow me to see the market consensus in one breadth. The better Sine and momentum indies performed very well on the $TICK when paired with the 2 minute and 15 minute time frame.
  • Using the 2 minute 3 Line Break chart on the side to provide additional trend confirmation.
  • The S&P eminis does NOT seem to FAKE out much. After Consolidating or forming a Triangle in whatever direction it BREAKS OUT and runs, this should always be confirmed with Volume and Background but generally ES dont FAKE.