Range Day's setting up for something Big?

Yesterday's 15 Minute Close Bar = Down @ 1323.50

Yesterday's TREND = UP 9:00/Reversal = Range

Yesterday's Power On Close = Weakness

Today's Open = Small Gap Down (2.25 points) 

Result = Gap Down then bounce for a continuation of yesterdays action.

Today's TREND =  Range

Today's 15 Minute Close Bar =Down@ 1321.00

Today's Power On Close = Weakness

Daily Volume = 2.0M low

Today's $TICK close = Down @ 363

2 tight range day doji's showing up the Daily's indicate a potential Break out of consolidation in the coming days.


1327.50 Key Resistance
1319.00 Key Support

TRADE OF THE DAY

Today's Trade of the day was a sell at the 1225 level down to the 1220.50.

We opened down then rallied before retesting the Gap area from Yeserday. On the 4500 tick wee Probars at cycle peak resistance. 1500 tick shows recent exhaustion the probars @ cycle resistance. 500tick showed EOT @ cycle resistance. 3 minute show probars @ cycle resistance. 1 minute tick in downtrend. 15 minutes 6:45 bar show bearish divergence on Up bar into trend resistance. 15 minute 7:00 shows hangman on the Low volume. 

15 minute chart shows range bouncing off of support from prior days gap area.

1500 tick sell off 

What I did well was be patient with my entries and stayed with the broad analysis. I trusted my forecast and and managed the positions for max profit. 

Market Internals helped to with my management and confidence as multiple stocks moved in sequence with ES. GE and QQQ both formed End Of trend Signals with ES.

Today we saw another Low volume day that appeared to be testing the support of  the EOT from early this week, we also a tight range for the second day in row, and the 2nd Flush signal in the last 5 days. As obvious as the sell off looks, I wouldn't be suprised if we see a friday rally to create Demand going into the weekend.

No Demands showing up on Daily's

Yesterday's 15 Minute Close Bar = UP @ 1316

Yesterday's TREND = UP 9:00/Reversal

Yesterday's Power On Close = Strength

Today's Open = No Gap (5.25 points) 

Result = Gap Test of Support Up trend till 9bar.

Today's TREND =   Strong UP

Today's 15 Minute Close Bar =Down@ 1324.00

Today's Power On Close = Weakness

Daily Volume = 1.1M low

Today's $TICK close = Down @ 348

TRADE OF THE DAY

Another 5+ point Gap up that lead to an early bounce testing the gap area then up trending for the early part of the day. Whenever we see gaps of 5 + points we tend get test of that area. This is very recognizable, when viewing the volume on the lows, here we see the 6:30 down bar on low volume. This pointed the way the path of least resistance, UP. The 6:45 & 7 bar confirmed the direction peaking at 8:30 on expanding volume.

A view of the Daily ES's are showing signs of slowing.. Over the past few days we seen volume drying up and hard sell offs to close the day session, on the @ES and ES.D Daily we formed an end of trend and low volume Rambo to the upside.

@ES Daily

It appears that the bounce from the recent lows of 1241. could be running out of steam. Over the next few days leading into next week Im expecting some upside test, maybe a break on high volume "Upthrust" to catch some stops before consolidation and distribution.

One Shot One Kill

Yesterday's 15 Minute Close Bar = UP @ 1316

Yesterday's TREND = UP

Yesterday's Power On Close = Strength

Today's Open = No Gap (2.25 points) 

Result = Gap Seal Test of Support Up trend.

Today's TREND =   Strong UP

Today's 15 Minute Close Bar = UP @ 1316.25

Today's Power On Close = Strength

Daily Volume = 1.5M low

Today's $TICK close = Down @ 647

Today it hit me hard that i need to simplify my style, my charts and my entry triggers amongst other things. The 7&9 bar Zones have served well in accomplishing this but there is still more to be done.

Today we saw a One Shot One Kill Trade that Gapped Up Seal and test of the OverNight Lows, which also happend to be a critical number around 1300. The 13,500 Cycle S/R showed it at 1302, we got EOT on the 4500 and 500ticks, as seen below the 1500tick will often over shoot the support, so my focus should only be on the 500 in the direction of the 4500 tick. Away from previous days and Overnight Support areas.

7&9 Bar zones show continuation and price agreed.

TRADE OF THE DAY

came on the first early morning bounce off the critical support area around 1300.

Once the 6:00 bar high was taken out we were off to the races for the remainder of the day.

This was evident with Overnight support below and EOT's on the 4500 and 500tick. 

The 7&9 Bar zones activity seemed to play out faster today. After we got the runner the 6:45 bar served as confirmation for a continued uptrend, closing at the same price for over for 45 minutes, (3 15 minute bars) Then continuing the rally high at 7:45, we again tested this high at 8:30 and took a small breather.

The 9 bars appears to show No demand at 1311.50 resistance area after consolidation, BUT we see higher highs over the next 2 bars, showing that we could retest the morning highs and move even higher.

What can i do better?

FOCUS on the Globex Support Resistance area. This is a Bread and Butter play that happens very often.

Executing and staying with the position as long as conditions remain is a goal. even until the 8:30 peak if the market says so.

Notice Critical Areas, beyond the Cycles, look for S/R from higher frames as well as round numbers 1300 etc. Use Daily Pivots also. when these overlap, that is a strong sign of support/Resistance.

The Sine Cycles should be used mainly for the lower frames, Only use the 4500 to match the lowers.

At each 7&9 bar zone check background for S/W

Slow Monday with Heavy Selling on the Close

Yesterday's 15 Minute Close Bar = Down @ 1301

Yesterday's TREND = UP

Yesterday's Power On Close = Strength

Today's Open = No Gap (1.25 points) 

Result = Continuation from Previous days close and Overnight Action.

Today's TREND = slightly UP / Doji

Today's 15 Minute Close Bar = UP @ 1302

Today's Power On Close = Weakness

Daily Volume = 1.27M

Today's $TICK close = Down @ -499

Today we saw early retest of Overnight Resistance, Then No demand on 6:45 bar then sell off on 7bar, 8:00 Peak low, 9bar test on End of Trend 15m, then resume of down trend with late day sell off. Im expecting some Overnight action to reveal why the late rush for the door after consolidated for most of the day.

15 minute chart of the day. ** shows 7&9 bar zone action, Red arrows 7&9 and 8:00 peak in yellow**

TRADE OF THE DAY
the trade of the day was the early 7bar positioning that play out very nice, at the opening the market reluctantly moved higher on decreasing volume and stalled at the overnight Resistance and previous days high, EOT on the 13,500 amongst other frames showing cycle resistance, this area was tested a number of timed over the past few session. Price did actually crack the high but was unable to keep support and finally broke down on the 7:00 bar. My thinking was if the specialist wanted to move prices higher they would have gapped through the resistance and tested for support Overnight. But we got a no gap open which usually leads to continuation. Also there was not much news, so volatility was low. The path of least resistance was Down. A good entry would have been 1314 level entering off the tick frames. Over the next hour we saw ES sell off down to 1309.25.


What i did Well?
Was forecast the day using my pre-prep routine. 
Spotted and reacted to the 7bar move.
After poor execution on the 7bar my re-entry was good for Max profit.
Was very patient, and limited my trades


What i did poorly?
Execution was horrible as i balked and traded against my forecast. I think i lost trust in shorting this market and the 7bar setup was SOOO obvious I thought it was a trick. I have taken this trade a few times and been stopped out as price broke resistance and continued higher.


How does this effect my progress?
Balking can effect my progress by costing excess fees and damaging confidence in my forecast.
Execution must be tightened up as this is one of the 3 main components of my trading. F.E.M


Solutions
Trust my forecast and stick to the plan, i spend too of time after the session analyzing the potentials for the next day to throw it all away on a hunch.


Intangible Observations
Ice breaker on 13,500 tick - If it does NOT break on the 2nd bar after the open then move on, start probing for 7bar position, this is a sign of low volatility.


Ask what is the 9bars telling me about the day.
On range days 9bar may be a peak.


Look for No Demands/No supply bar around 7&9 bars.

Solid Trend with Midday Reversal "Doji Day"

Yesterday's 15 Minute Close Bar = Down @ 1301

Yesterday's TREND = UP

Yesterday's Power On Close = Strength

Today's Open = Gap UP (points) 

Result = Morning bounce then up trend to 7bar, 8:30 Peak, 9bar reversal

Today's TREND = slightly UP / Doji

Today's 15 Minute Close Bar = UP @ 1310.00

Today's Power On Close = Weakness

Daily Volume = 1.66M

Today's $TICK close = Down @ -108

Today was another Gap Test that found an early bottom and headed north for the first half of the day. Found a top at the Dead Zone Peak time of 8:30 as Pro's began heading for the doors the market was unable to find its way out of Bear channel.

15 minute chart showing todays action

BEST TRADE OF THE DAY
The Best Trade of the Day was the pullback to the previous days trend line @ 6:00, Tested and  confirmed at 6:30 with a break above the previous bar, then gave a last chance entry @ 6:45 before peaking at its Max @ 7:00. 
I did see and react to this opportunity but closed out early on the pullback below the trend line. Did i believe the trend was changing? Stay focused on the WHOLE picture, remember a change in trend takes time it wont be an immediate turn.


What did I do Well?

Accurate daily forecast and morning Ice breaker trade went well

My morning routine was good and I discovered some relaxing stretches to add to the morning routine.

I was able recognize the best move of the day and had a great entry, but moved stop up too quick and was hit for break even on one and closed out a loss too early on the next good looking trade.

What Did I do Poorly?

I took a horrible trade that was not setup nor had any confirmation at all, I entered as a revenge trade for the  good trades that got away this morning. The loss lead to one more dumb trade .

I started getting frustrated at this point and recognized this fact, so began writing how i felt down

The losser was Against the obvious trend, I was focused only the 500 tick and jumped in impulsively.

The early Mistakes did have an effect on my thinking early today. The mornings are the highest probability times and i cant afford to be upset during this times.

What was the quality of my Thinking? and Feelings
At times I did think about my last trade, I wanted to know specifically why i closed out 1 tick too early without letting it hit my stop at which point the price reversed and RAN in the intended direction. Why didnt i re-enter? I must keep the whole analysis in the forefront of my descisions, meaning if we forecast an early up trend at least to the 7bar then why not re-enter. Did my confidence decline? did this lead me to question my analysis? Stay focus on where price is likely to go intra-day

ie. previous days S/R, Overnight Trend 7&9bar zones.

How will effect my progress?

"I you ain't making mistakes you ain't trying or learning"

These mistakes are the building blocks to my success as a trader, I know i shouldn't trade against the trend and that they can cost me in many ways but everyday I'm getting better at catching these mistakes and correcting them.

Solutions?

Keep making mistakes, as many as needed to drill the lessons in

I have the solution to most of the mistakes I make its just a matter of executing the solutions with practice.

Also Entrainment with heart and mind must be applied during the trading session. My focus should also include some techniques for coherence and entrainment prior to and during the sessions.


Stay focus on where price is likely to go intra-day
ie. previous days S/R, Overnight Trend.

Intangible Observations

Forecasting is only 1 third of the battle, another third is Execution and the last third is money management - FEM - each one of these needs the other.

When viewing Block bars look a the actual axis and note the tick direction, it may be a clue.

Re-evaluate the TREND after 8:30, use trend lines for good visuals.
The Overnight trend/ S/R S/W will show it hand in the open, Thus we must be ready to respond to test of key areas immediately. 

Strong UP Trend after Gap Test

Yesterday's 15 Minute Close Bar = Down @ 1288

Yesterday's TREND = UP

Yesterday's Power On Close = Weakness

Today's Open = Gap UP (points) 

Result = Strong UP Trend GAP Seal, after early double bottom

Today's TREND = UP

Today's 15 Minute Close Bar = Down @ 13252

Today's Power On Close = Weakness

Daily Volume = 1.8M

Today's $TICK close = Down @ -93


Very Solid Day and almost an exact repeat of yesterday Gap Break, early reversal and strong up trend for the remainder. We had Blocks showing up in droves over the past few days at peaks and rushing the close.


15 minute uptrend after Gap is test early.

4500 strong uptrend showing Block Size stepping in.

What did i do well?
I was able to maintain good focus throughout the day catching a fair share of the bulk moves.


I was able to get Max profit on one trade and used the ATM to lock gains.


I got good entries today for most of my trades.


Forecast for the day was accurate I expected an early reversal and possible trend due to the Gap Up and overnight activity.
Mentally I was pretty clear for most the day, and i used the what-if technique for staying open minded and objective.


I held my concentration and spotted and acted on moves. The main one being a consolidation that set up as a short i realized i was on the wrong side and
exited at break even and reversed for a gain upon break out.


What did i do poorly?
Got off to bad start with some confusion as to when the early reversal would happen and i jumped the gun.


Trading against the trend early on, trying to be a hero and catch the reversal without any clear signals, this could be classified as impulsive.


Jumped on what appeared to be a perfect short that never really played out. In Strong up trends the shorts are not worth it after the 1st hour of the day.


I was moving my stop to break even after 4 ticks and not allowing the 2nd lot to max out. I did not make the adjustment soon enough.


How will this effect my progress?
My consistency will depend on how I well i can maintain my focus on the current market.


Trading against the Trend will destroy ALL my analysis and work.


Getting off to a bad start is like starting a football game down by 2 touchdowns!! i forces you to play from behind and adds pressure if you let it, it can lead to spirals and lack of confidence on subsequent moves. THIS WILL BE CORRECTED with my open ice breaker trade. to help me to focus on 1 thing early on.


What is my Solution?
Getting off to a bad start can be cured by having a very specific setup to look for in the first hour of trading, this will prevent me from forcing the first trades of the day. I never had this problem until recently, when i used the ice breaker style i never forced entries.


Trading against the trend is being corrected by using Trend Lines more often, this allows me to SEE the bigger picture better. "Trends Trump Cycles every time", quote by Barry Taylor.


Jumping on reversals will be limited as i will have only 2 potential times when they are likely to occur, see the 7 & 9.


Intangible Observations
In the first hour only look for trades in the direction of the Overnight trend !! see new Open Ice breaker article


To gauge immediate price strength you can look at how fast and far Price reacts to the $TICK, ( ie. when the tick move say 10 points how many tick does the ES price move?. Today i noted that at times the $TICK would sell off but the ES price would hardly move down, BUT when the $TICK move back up the ES price would shoot up a few ticks.


Strong trends can also be gauged by how $TICK stays above the o Line, you can read the $TICK and see that it will bounce fast away from the 0 Line when the trend is strong. When it finally breaks below look for a bounce pull back in the -500 to -700 range.


When weakness appears in Strong up trends you MUST be ULTRA patient, the market top will take a while to form and actually sell off, They cannot be trusted, its best to wait for a solid down trend and look for re-entries.