Thursday, May 2, 2013

5pt Gap Up + Open above1582 off PDC Buying = early Strength & Flag Break in t1st Ti


Today we had a 5pt Gap Up after testing 1589 in the Globex session and selling off to form a base into the pre-open. The Base held printing exhaustion on the 5 minute and Block bar closing down into support on the 13500 & 4500 shortly after the open. The Open above1582 off PDC Buying was an early clue of Strength.
Recap Notes: 
Trade Selection -  Good Trading, Good Entries, OK Exits
Sequence 1 Block bars @globex Highs with hard selling coming into the pre-open. Price stalled at 1582 printing block bars and forming a flag while holding a base on all time frames. I was able to get in and take gains within the flag range. However i sat on the sideline during the actual breakout leaving money on the table twice as price flagged up again after the 1st Ti break and Rallied immediately after the 2nd Ti. No regrets was done early with a good gain.

ADJUSTMENTS & OBSERVATIONS:

Check News prior to trading!!! - When we Blocks against the premise check the higher time frames and follow the $Tick trend. Today i got shaken out of good position because i reacted to block bars on the lower time frames (15 &5) but no where else while the $tick was still trending lower... With a strong premise these can be dismissed until the 5minute,15 minute, 45 or 13500 tick response also with block volume.

Confirmation to hold during a rally - When a rally ensues and we get a professional bar (on say the 15 or 45, 5m) printing this Hammer/Hangmen bar then we may hold till the close of the bar. If we close above it then this signal more buying by late pros absorbing the profit taking sell orders as show by the tail. This is  a sign of higher prices. 

**Also Note that breakout bars on the 1st Ti will usually close on their highs putting in a few more points before stalling, These bars could be held for 15-30 minutes to maximize the rally. The break above the 1st Ti Bar is the 30 minutes total from the 1st Ti @ 7:00**


Mid line and 0 Line Confluence - Today we had a block bar closing on the low but remaining above the mid line. At the same time the $Tick was making its 1st test of the 0 Line. To add to this  was the Vpoc of the opening bar showed Strong balance symmetrical protruding between 1581-1581.75 after gaping up in the globex. When the next bar prints and holds this VPOC we have very strong confirmation of higher prices.

Patient on the Open waiting for the cycles is the key. Allow the directional Premise to show itself