Today we had a 5pt gap following Blox @ Globex highs leading to early selling momentum. On FOMC announcement days we tend to get slow opens until the 1st Ti. today was no different price traded in a 6pt range before breaking down @ the 1st Ti. We bounced from here on light volume and began rolling over again after the 2nd Ti marking the intraday high @1588. From here we dropped 10pts testing the 1579.50 price. a test of 1573 seems likely but if we close above 1581 and hold in Globex then we may see another rally to 1590's.
Recap Notes:
Trade Selection - Good Trading, Ok Entries, Good Exits.
Sequence 1 Block bars @globex Highs with hard selling into the open, i took this as a momentum trade, price moved in favor 1 pt but stalled batting back and fourth, should have been expected with late news release. took a small profit on this one.
Sequence 2 15/5 cycle This trade move in favor slightly but my entry was waay too late for the pop and waay too early for the 15/5 cycle and was actually Unqualified but i didn't want to miss the move(poor Reason to tenter)
Sequence 2A Reversal after Blox printed on the lows of the Tick (this was selling and i over reacted) but no regrets as this was my signal i just never printed on the higher time frames or even the 5 minutes so it was a short tern signal. My bad No regrets
Sequence 3 15 Single cycle in Trend that took along while before playing the initial entry was poor as i was again too early. Recognizing this i was able to get more on at the 45 cycle that later synced with 1500. My premise was good the whole way but my timing caused me to have to battle back from a 6pt down. However i was able to recover and walk with a modest gain on the day with No regrets and good lessons.
Sequence 2 15/5 cycle This trade move in favor slightly but my entry was waay too late for the pop and waay too early for the 15/5 cycle and was actually Unqualified but i didn't want to miss the move(poor Reason to tenter)
Sequence 2A Reversal after Blox printed on the lows of the Tick (this was selling and i over reacted) but no regrets as this was my signal i just never printed on the higher time frames or even the 5 minutes so it was a short tern signal. My bad No regrets
Sequence 3 15 Single cycle in Trend that took along while before playing the initial entry was poor as i was again too early. Recognizing this i was able to get more on at the 45 cycle that later synced with 1500. My premise was good the whole way but my timing caused me to have to battle back from a 6pt down. However i was able to recover and walk with a modest gain on the day with No regrets and good lessons.
ADJUSTMENTS & OBSERVATIONS:
Check News prior to trading!!! - When we Blocks against the premise check the higher time frames and follow the $Tick trend. Today i got shaken out of good position because i reacted to block bars on the lower time frames (15 &5) but no where else while the $tick was still trending lower... With a strong premise these can be dismissed until the 5minute,15 minute, 45 or 13500 tick response also with block volume.
Confirmation to hold during a rally - When a rally ensues and we get a professional bar (on say the 15 or 45, 5m) printing this Hammer/Hangmen bar then we may hold till the close of the bar. If we close above it then this signal more buying by late pros absorbing the profit taking sell orders as show by the tail. This is a sign of higher prices.
**Also Note that breakout bars on the 1st Ti will usually close on their highs putting in a few more points before stalling, These bars could be held for 15-30 minutes to maximize the rally. The break above the 1st Ti Bar is the 30 minutes total from the 1st Ti @ 7:00**
Mid line and 0 Line Confluence - Today we had a block bar closing on the low but remaining above the mid line. At the same time the $Tick was making its 1st test of the 0 Line. To add to this was the Vpoc of the opening bar showed Strong balance symmetrical protruding between 1581-1581.75 after gaping up in the globex. When the next bar prints and holds this VPOC we have very strong confirmation of higher prices.
Patient on the Open waiting for the cycles is the key. Allow the directional Premise to show itself
Confirmation to hold during a rally - When a rally ensues and we get a professional bar (on say the 15 or 45, 5m) printing this Hammer/Hangmen bar then we may hold till the close of the bar. If we close above it then this signal more buying by late pros absorbing the profit taking sell orders as show by the tail. This is a sign of higher prices.
**Also Note that breakout bars on the 1st Ti will usually close on their highs putting in a few more points before stalling, These bars could be held for 15-30 minutes to maximize the rally. The break above the 1st Ti Bar is the 30 minutes total from the 1st Ti @ 7:00**
Patient on the Open waiting for the cycles is the key. Allow the directional Premise to show itself