Thursday, April 14, 2011

Gap Seal and Inevitable Targets

Yesterday's 15 Minute Close Bar = Down @ 1309.
Yesterday's TREND = Down Trend
Yesterday's Power On Close = Weakness
Today's Open = Gap Down (6.5 points) 
Result = Gap Seal and Up Trend, test of lows,reverse then test gap are at 9bar peak high.
Today's TREND =  UP Trend then Reversal midday, then back down
Today's 15 Minute Close Bar =UP@ 1310.00
Today's Power On Close = Strength
Daily Volume = M2.2  Average
Today's $TICK close = Down @ +132

Daily Market Bias = 1.645 STRONG BULL

Today we had a gap down of 6.25. We put in low on the heels of yesterday's very hard sell close (multiple Probars on 13,500 on weak close) and the Globex overnight and Pre-Open momentum. On Open Price tested and failed at S1 pivot. Then bounce off the lows with an EOT on the 1500 tick and continued to rally in a typical Gap Seal UP trend.
Daily looks like the bounce and test of Resistance @1318 is in play, Friday could provide the rally to test this area.


TRADE OF THE DAY
was the bounce of 13,500 support with 1500 EOT. The move was too swift for me to catch immediately but the strength provided good re-entry's up until the 1308 level before loosing steam at the 1st 7bar (gravestone doji) signaling downside pressure. Price pulled back to support at S1 and bounce again to retest the days highs of 1308 (13,500)hammer, a 1500 tick End of Trend and boosted with a 500 tick EOT (out of sync) to test the Gap area and prior days close low. There were multiple opportunities to enter on the long side. 
13,500 look at Open Ice and Up trend


What i Could have done better?
was take fewer trades, i don't have any regrets as I felt that my analysis was solid. However at least 2 trades could have been avoided with a bit more scrutiny prior to entry.


INTANGIBLE OBSERVATIONS
When we get PB in trend sometimes the EOT may not print, so I must look at the bottom Sine and PRICE, when i see probars get broken then enter.


While in a trade be sure to note the Inevitable target. I reversed a 500/4500 sync because price would not budge more than a tick in my favor and stayed mostly a tick behind my entry. This was a huge clue that most likely the Inevitable target was in opposition to my trade.
The Main Clue was: Strength in the Back with an EOT on the 1500 and another EOT on the 500tick that showed out of sync later in the trend.
Price also blew past a PB in trend signal without printing an EOT!! 
Price also ignored the cycle and never really turned much.


When price rolls over in to a mushroom top notice the 2nd peak is lower than the high top, If price reverses above this peak exit the trade.


On 7&9 look at the specific bars for price clues, look for dojis, hammers, hangmen, low volume up / down bars, upthrust, no supply, no demand etc. 
These 2 bars should be specifically observed for 8-8:30 hi/lo peaks and daily reversal clues. 
Back test the actual bars types that show up most often and what the result of these bars tell me.


When we have a solid setup don't enter too early. Wait to be sure you are entering on the correct cycle to put the momentum in my favor, If we enter too early we may have to sit through an unnecessary negative cycle.


When things look confusing get out and scroll back the 500 tick to see if Mushrooms and Saucers are present. 
The 500 tick will show early turns with curved tops and bottoms for directional bias confirmation.