Tuesday, April 26, 2011

Consumer Confidence to Justify Up Move!

Yesterday's TREND = Tight Bearish Range Drifter
Yesterday's Power On Close = WEAKNESS
Today's Open = Gap Up (5 points) 
Result = Early Reversal break to strong uptrend.
Today's TREND = Tight UP trend with early reversal
Today's 15 Minute Close Bar =DOWN@ 1340.75
Today's Power On Close = WEAKNESS
Daily Volume = 1.38 Below Average
Today's $TICK close = UP@ +351

Daily Market Bias =  -1.214 Moderate/Strong Bear 

Today was a gap of 5 pts. Price bounced on the news that consumer confidence was above expectations. We saw New highs above 1344.00 which is actually mind boggling with all the apparent  weakness, Looks like manipulation. But never the less we must roll with the current trend. And we have Daily cycle Support happening at the moment.


TRADE OF THE DAY
came early on a 5/1500 sync that was the start of the days up trend moving from 1335.00 to 1344 over the next hour, providing very few justifiable entries for remainder of day.


WHAT I COULD HAVE DONE BETTER
was reverse positions after the seeing the 5/15 sync. I was short on the previous 5/15 with EOT on 500. I had a very late entry and try'ed milking the move for more than was available,(when entering late expect the minimal) especially after a 2pt late entry!! This not only cost me the profit from the trade but the profits from reversing to catch the trade of the day.

I have to be quicker to taking action. And be more alert to market signs.

INTANGIBLE OBSERVATIONS
Be alert to Reverse when price shows stubbornness or you see a confluence sync set up against your position.

How to Respond to EXTRA STRONG TRENDS

On the Open Internals (Radar) were making NEW highs and Vix making New Lows, when we See these extremes EARLY we should look to enter on a correction, it may be a Confluence Synch or Globex/Gap Bounce. I have seen this in the past with New Lows as well. Price would correct to the upside then sell off.




When Price Moves Very Strong in one direction and the tick chart cycles are flat providing NO entry's, (see cycle below)
look to trade the $TICK cycles in the trend direction, the $TICK moving average and cycles will confirm. $TICK will REACT at the 0 line. (** notice 0 line holds as solid support)


Bearish signal can be ignored when the trend campaign is SOOO Strong and there is News to justify the trend. Think Hold till the close!!

Draw Trend Line on 5 minute chart and Add-on when price bounces.
It is VERY important to stick with the TREND in these cases because the Market is Showing Irrational behavior, thus we must think irrational!! and ignore ALL bearish signal setups etc, these should be used to reenter at better prices.