Thursday, January 24, 2013

2.75 gap dn + Strong Block signal = Early rally on Open


Today we had 2.75pt gap down after a strong trend day. We had Blocks on the 135 minute high time frame for background strength. Price reacted quickly on the open moving up 6 point in 15 minutes and continuing to rally to early highs on the 1st Ti. 
Recap Notes:

Trade Selection -  Poor trading,  Bad initial Entry,  ok Exits. Sequence 1 was an Unqualified Liquid Scalp. I missed the opening move in my intended direction and started chasing profits so i decided to scalp against my understanding that the market was very strong putting too much on in 1 place. I initially managed this mistake ok by quickly scalling out for a small loss. Then I reentered on a retry adding far more than the minimal size, Major regrets on this one. Sequence 2 started a C(500 cycle) in trend but delayed to 15/5. This also took some heat but was in the direction of strength so would eventually 
provide solid exit opportunities.


INTANGIBLE OBSERVATIONS:
Go with your first mind - I miss the opening move and cant find a solid setup then consider forfitting the day with NO trading. Today i considered just leaving as i had thoughts of doing poorly and i missed the most solid move that i foresaw but failed to react to.

Think PROBE Wholesale & retail when scalping - With this in mind i tend to NOT place too many lots at 1 price and thinking wholesale retail allows me to be more patient when looking for opportunities.

Keep lots to a minimum - Whenever i increase my lots beyond the minimal i get into BIG trouble. This is key to cutting loses along with thinking probe on scalps.

Be prepared for slow start on Late day News Releases - Today we had a 7:00am news release, this typically causes slow starts and choppy mornings, On these days it best to be VERY careful taking  high probability opportunities and quick exits on light lots.

Read the sentiment of the Market and Understand the Background - Today i was able to read the sentiment of the market due to the background strength that appeared in the globex session and the Prior Days Close. This along with the open gap of less than 2pts pointed to a continuation of higher prices albeit in a tight range. This allowed me to remain confident even when cycles appeared to be turning against the position.