Today we Gap Dn 16.5 pts Put in a very quiet slow choppy open that had probars on the 1500 tick in bundles, this appeared to be a wave of strength but ounce broker saw prices move lower to the 1240 area. We bounced from here on the 2nd Time Interval but met rejection on the 3rd TI that pushed prices back to the 1237.50 low. VERY STRANGE MARKET TODAY.. Obvious Manipulation best to avoid
Trade Of The Day.
Globex Momentum moving Down. Open Choppy Triangle on High Volume that retest the high of 1250 (Round Number Resistance) that is also a PB in trend. the Break below the 1500tick Block bars @ 1246 & 1247 was a good confirmed entry. The best Liquid entry would have been SHort orders above the market @1250 for the test. The price trended lower on the day with broad range moves.
Recap Notes:
Trade Selection - I entered on an unqualified sequence that appeared to have a wave of strength moving in with multiple Probars trading in a range. This was probably due to a lack of focus on the open as my contract was off due to Rollover, It took me 15 + minutes to correct all chart and matrix so i actually missed the open and therefore missed ice breaker opportunities. But had i followed that premise i could have max or more in that direction. Instead I was caught wrong footed and price moved away from my entry 3pts in no time. However the main clue was that Globex Momentum was very strong to the downside and remained into the pre-open, The market was very thin and moved in broad ranges, clearly being manipulated. I was able to managed the position to a small profit but not after taking major heat and 45 minutes of focus. The 2nd sequences was a probe that I scratched with profit. 2 Sequences. Strange Day
Today's 15m Close: Strength. High volume Wide Spread Dn Into Support.
Accumulation Range: Intraday Session: Blocks @ 1230-1237
Globex: None
Distribution Range: Intraday: Block @ 1244-1247 Globex: None
Today's $TICK Close: 279
The Daily's
Dow - Weakness. Closed Up on higher but still low volume but just off the highs approaching a cycle Resistance. Printed NoD
ES.D - Short Term Strength. 135 Bounce off old R new S @ 1250 on high volume, forming a flag continuation. Also approaching Cycle Resistance. Testing 1260 on High Volume a break above this level on the weekly and we could see a test of 1300? The recent rally in the Dow and ES had weakness written all over it BUT i think the specialist will continue to mark prices up to close year with gains in their long term aggregate accounts.
Internals - Weakness. GE closed up as an inside day after PT closing off the highs signaling possible weakness also at a cycle R point. BAC closed up into Resistance on low volume. Cisco appears to be fighting a cycle Resistance.
INTANGIBLE OBSERVATIONS:
Be aware on rollover dates, set reminder on phone ahead of time. Also on Thin choppy Opens, Focus on the Globex Momentum and signs of Strength or Weakness .
Be aware of Time Interval that print Blocks and Probars in counter trends - This may appear without Cycle Syncs so don't hesitate.
Be aware of Time Interval that print Blocks and Probars in counter trends - This may appear without Cycle Syncs so don't hesitate.
Globex Momentum is Key - Blocks on wide spread bars at the peaks that precede a sell off could be specialist positioning themselves short, If the momentum remains into the pre-open, then the open has a short bias due to the most recent momentum.
Focus on Waves of Strength and Weakness as the primary directional clue -This should be qualified prior to entering ANY setup, the 15/5 sync can be wrong if they are against the most current wave of S/W.
45/5 Syncs must Have multiple confirming clues - The 45/5 sync must have clues to confirm, ie 1500 is broken into a trend or has exhaustion and High Volume before entering, The reason is that the 45 is too slow and the 500 is too fast so the sync may be misleading.
Be Very Patient on slow opens - On slow opens focus on action around time intervals and position accordingly, these may be the best RR:R and only opportunities on the day.
When Probars and Block Bars show up on the right side of a peak and don't destruct, then this is a buying clue.
Conversely when Pros and Blocks show up on the right side of a spike and doesn't rally then this is a selling clue.