Wednesday, March 13, 2013

+.75k gap into weakness = Hard Decline to test PD Strength


Today we had a -small con gap into weakness and quickly rejected selling off 4+ pts in less than a minute. This was a test of the prior days strength @ 1542 whee Block printed on the 5minute and 4500tick before the 1st Ti. We finally rallied off absorption volume into the 2nd Ti before more blocks printed on the 15 minute covering the same area the prior day? between 1543-1547.
Recap Notes:

Trade Selection -  Poor Trading,  Poor initial Entries, Poor Cuts and Ok Exits
Sequence 1- **Worst Trade** was a 15 single cycle Into recent WEAKNESS!! This was the wrong play at the wrong time. Although the Premise was solid the timing was off. Price was marked down 4+ pts in the less the 1 minute. However i was able to bail on some and i was not at max so the losses were recoverable on the day. BUT i should have bailed ALOTE earlier on this one. 

Sequence 2 - **Better Trade** was a long entry based on the earlier premise of strength in the background but this time we had absorption bars on the 15m and 4500 tick. I was able to hold for a good gain but the larger move didn't take place until the 2nd Ti
(Alote of Probing and scalping today, my premise was true but the timing was off)

INTANGIBLE OBSERVATIONS:
When trading the premise be aware of the most recent reflect surrounding that premise - Today I had a solid premise of strength based the prior days Lows having printed Blocks on multiple time frames. However the open was into recent pre-open weakness that needed to be played out prior to the premise. The result was a hard sell early to test the background strength and then the rally between @ 7:00 - 8:00am

Strong Signals but choppy Opens - Usually of we have strong signals but a choppy  ope n we tend to get a larger move later in the day around the 2nd Ti. Be alert for this type of action especially during daylight saving time, Spring Time change is critical for what to expect early

Tuesday, March 12, 2013

-2pt gap into support + weakness = early chop late decline


Today we had a -2pt gap down into some 15 minute and 135000 tick support, but weakness was clearly evident overall but needed time to play out. The signal came on a 4500 EOT with Block Bars a the highs on all tick charts. After a tight ranging morning price sold off 8pts during the 2nd Ti.
Recap Notes:

Trade Selection -  Good Trading,  OK initial Entries,  Good Cuts and Solid Exits
Sequence 1- was a 45/5 sync with Block bars i the back. This trade had a good premise but no real moves as the range was tight. but  i managed to take small profits with max size and quick cuts.

Sequence 2 - was a short based on the 45 EOT with block bars across the ticks. price sold off over the next hour but i was only able to a small gain with good lots. Ran out of time due to morning errands. No regrets good day considering the circumstances. 
(Alote of Probing)

INTANGIBLE OBSERVATIONS:
OStrong Signals but choppy Opens - Usually of we have strong signals but a choppy  ope n we tend to get a larger move later in the day around the 2nd Ti. Be alert for this type of action especially during daylight saving time, Spring Time change is critical for what to expect early

Monday, March 4, 2013

-2.5 Gap + Blocks @ Lows = Early test of the 1516


Today we had a 2.50 Continuation Gap on the heals of Block bars showing up in the Globex session after Rambo bars printed 10 points below the close. Indicating Specialist accumulating after hours. This strength fueled a rally to the pre-open and into the 1st Ti testing the 1516 area.
Recap Notes:

Trade Selection -  Good Trading,  Good initial Entries,  Good Cuts and Great Exits
Sequence 1- was actually 15/5 cycle with block bars printing on the globex lows and the pre open. Price opened into apparent weakness but the blocks printed again at 1500 support. Good trade i was able to take most off at rally high.

Sequence 2 - was a Reentry 15/5 cycle with blocks in the background. After probing I was able to get max on for a solid gain exiting into the rally. Was able to take the bulk off at healthy gains.

INTANGIBLE OBSERVATIONS:
look for Blocks on the higher Time Frames and give the probes a chance - Today i was able to get probes on based on strength but didn't give them a chance to indicate confirmation so i wound up closing and reversing only to reverse bake to my original premise before  gains were made. This is too exhaustive and needs to be checked. The key is to trust the PREMISE and allow it to confirm before getting more on.