Friday, October 12, 2012

.25pt Gap up + test of Support w/strength = 1st Ti Rally


Today we had a .25pt gap up typically suggesting a continuation from the pd's trend. The higher time frame strength appeared to be developing and we tested the lows of 1426.75 early on globex momentum which was 4500,13,500 and daily support, From here we bounced 8pts on the news till the 1st Time Interval where prices retreated back to break support and put in new lows below 1420 area.
Recap Notes:
Trade Selection - Good Trading, Good Entries, Good exit. my 1st trade I entered off a c500 cycle in trend with globex momentum in background. The move traveled 2.5pts. However i made Order Entry Errors by adding to the position when my intent was to began exiting costing me a portion the profits booked. My 2nd sequence was smoother, i entered on a liquid bounce off support on the 45,13,500 and daily riding a pop into the days highs.

INTANGIBLE OBSERVATIONS:
Continuation Gaps - Be careful on continuation gaps and wait for the extremes. 
Trust your premise but adjust your target based on the range potential. Today we traveled in tight 5.5pt range past the 3rd TI with No blocks on the 15minute lows suggesting continuation of PD trend on the day.

Blocks Midday - Blocks on the 15m or high Tick chart Extremes are very strong signals for continuation on the upcoming day. They also show up in the globex session and MUST be respected when forming a premise for the upcoming day.

15minute blocks at the highs

13,500 Blocks at the highs


Results in large move approx. .50% change on the day


Wednesday, October 10, 2012

.25pt Continuation Gap + Early test of Lows + Blocks + 5pt rang = Accumulation


Today we had a .25pt gap Dn suggesting a continuation of prior days trend. The PD had weakness with Blocks at the midday highs. We put in a low early @ 1432 when blocks appears on the 13,500 tick with 15minute NoS letter. We bounced and rallied on the 1st Time Interval to test 1437.50 before retreating back to the POC of 1434-1435. No pros or blocks on the 15 Minute and a 5.50pt range would suggest potential accumulation on the day if 15m block appear at the lows.
Recap Notes:
Trade Selection - Good Trading, Good Entry, Good exit. I entered off a 15/5 cycle sync that popped 2pts straigth away but i held for a larger gain that didnt happen till later so i had to sit through 3pts of heat with heavy size (NOT GOOD). However I trusted my premise of strength as we had Blocks on the Lows and we bounce quickly when testing those areas. Price popped on the 1st Time interval and i was able to manage my risk taking profits into the rally.

INTANGIBLE OBSERVATIONS:
Continuation Gaps - Be careful on continuation gaps and wait for the extremes. 
Trust your premise but adjust your target based on the range potential. Today we traveled in tight 5.5pt range past the 3rd TI with No blocks on the 15minute lows suggesting continuation of PD trend on the day.

Friday, October 5, 2012

7.75 Gap Up off PDC Weakness + 3.5 Range 1st Ti = Tight Range Drifter


Today we had a 7.25pt gap Up off Prior days closing Weakness. which suggest a tight range drifter to the long side. We traded in a 3.5pt range till the 1st Time Interval with inside bars on the 15minute. price was unable to break below the opening bar thus confirming the potential for higher prices late.
Recap Notes:
Trade Selection - Good Trading, Good Entry, Great exit. I entered on a liquid entry of PDC weakness that printed Block Bars at the Globex highs on the 13,500 and 40500 with 1500tick EOT. The short took light heat but broke down as expected for a solid gain early as price seemed to prep for a  late day drifter to the long side.

INTANGIBLE OBSERVATIONS:
 Large Gap Opens -Watch for Trapped Longs and Angry Shorts that will be forced to make a decision early.
Today we saw price gap up 7.25 pts from what appeared to be a weak close. Shorts would be forced to bail at higher prices and longs would be encouraged to hold for higher prices (that few will take profit into). Suggesting that the specialist would be looking to Distribute at even higher prices before staging an even larger decline in the upcoming days. Take advantage of todays likely closing senerio which would be higher prices.

Be aware to take early profits off the table: Today i allow prices to move deep in favor and reverse to put me under pressure. i had to barf a few lots simply because i lost focus and started thinking about yesterdays behavior.. BIG mistake. Always take early pops

Trust the HTF (Higher Time Frame) Confluence, be sure you are trading away from Strength or Weakness. Today we had HTF Strength showing its hand by with confluence on the 135 and 40,500 tick. and a 5.25pt gap up further indicating momentum from the Prior Day and Globex session. We had Trapped shorts that just below 1440 for more fuel.